Export and import price indices - September 2008

In September 2008, export prices increased by 0.6%, import prices by 0.9%, month-on-month. Year-on-year, export prices fell by 4.6% and import prices by 1.7%. The terms of trade figures reached 99.7%, m-o-m, and 97.0%, y-o-y.
Month-on-month comparison:

- Exports : In August export prices increased by 0.6%, again especially due to weakening of the Czech koruna, although this month the weakening was much less significant than last one. The growth of the total m-o-m export price index came mainly from a 1.7% price increase in ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (especially iron and steel). The biggest growths were recorded for prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' by 2.5% (particularly coal and electric current), ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ by 1.0% and 'machinery and transport equipment’ by 0.4% (mainly general industrial machinery and equipment). Lower were only prices of ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ by 6.3% (especially metal scrap) and prices of ‘food and live animals’ by 2.5%.

- Imports prices increased too, this time by 0.9%, especially by weakening of the Czech koruna. The growth of the total m-o-m import price index was driven mainly by a 1.7% increase in prices of 'machinery and transport equipment’ (especially electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances). The biggest growths were registered for prices of ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ by 3.8% (especially crude rubber and metalliferous ores), prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ rose by 1.3%, ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ by 1.1% and ‘chemicals and related products’ and ‘food and live animals’ both by 0.9%. A decrease was registered, among important sections, only for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' by 2.0%.

- The terms of trade figures stood at 99.7% in September (100.4% in August) and dropped again to negative values. The lowest terms of trade figures were registered for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (90.3%) and ‘food and live animals’ (96.6%). Positive values were recorded for ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (100.4%) and ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' by (104.6%).

Year-on-year comparison:

Exports: export prices decreased by 4.6% in September (by 5.7% in August) and dropped already for the eleventh month in a row. The biggest price decreases were registered in ‘food and live animals’ by 11.1% (mainly cereals and cereal preparations), prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ by 8.2% and ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ by 7.2%. Among important sections an increase was reported only for prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ by 18.6% (especially coal) and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ by 0.9%.

- Imports: import prices decreased already for the fourteenth successive month, this time by 1.7% (by 3.5% in August). Like in August, the drop of the total y-o-y import price index was mainly affected by a 8.8% price decrease in 'machinery and transport equipment' (especially electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances). Considerable price drops were observed again in 'miscellaneous manufactured articles' by 6.7%, ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ by 3.7% and ‘chemicals and related products' by 2.4%. Significant growth was recorded for prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' by 29.6% (by 31.8% in August) and ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ by 12.5% (by 7.4% in August).

- The terms of trade figures decreased and stood at 97.0% (97.7% in August), remaining still below 100% for the tenth month in a row. Markedly negative values of terms of trade figures were recorded for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (84.8%), low values of the terms of trade figures were registered also for ‘food and live animals’ (90.4%) and ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (91.5%). On the contrary, positive values of the terms of trade figures, among sections important in terms of weight, were reported for 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (104.8%), ‘chemicals and related products' (101.2%) and 'machinery and transport equipment' (100.7%).
Month-on-month comparison:

- In October the world prices of industrial raw materials and food covered by the index decreased in total for the third month in a row, this time by 11.7% (by 6.7% in September). The main reason of this trend was a 28.0% fall of Brent oil prices (by 13.3% in September). A significant drop was registered also for prices of metals, rubber, food and wood. A growth was recorded only for prices of natural gas.

Year-on-year comparison:

- In October, the world prices increased by 16.3% (+40.9% in September) slowing down their growth rate for the fourth successive month. A cause of this deep fall of growth rate was the decreasing price of Brent oil, which fell down by 12.7% (growth by 30.6% in September). A significant increase was registered again for natural gas (by 74.0%), but considerable drop was reported for prices of metals, rubber and wood.

1) The world prices follow current prices in original currencies in commodity markets and indicate in advance the character of the future development of the Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.

Analysis - Development of external trade price indices in the third quarter of 2008

---

Note
Contact: Vladimír Klimeš, phone (+420) 274 054 102, e-mail: vladimir.klimes@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-08 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
Detailed (Internet: /produkty/export-and-import-price-indices-in-the-czech-republic-december-zn0n03jaf2 )
7202-08 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
Detailed (Internet: /produkty/indexy-csu-svetovych-cen-prumyslovych-surovin-a-potravin-prosinec-z8ictqx7yq )
The data released are final.