Export and import price indices - September 2006

In September, import prices decreased by 0.5%, while export prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month. Year-on-year, import prices were up by 0.4% and export prices by 1.1%. The terms of trade figures reached 101.0% m-o-m and 100.7% y-o-y. World prices of industrial raw materials and food decreased in October by 1.8% m-o-m and increased by 12.9% y-o-y.
Month-on-month comparison:

- Imports: import prices decreased by -0.5%. The biggest influence on the decrease of the total m-o-m import price index was due to a decline in prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' by -6.1% (mainly petroleum and petroleum products). On the contrary, prices of all other observed commodity sections increased, the most 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' prices +1.3% (metalliferous ores and metal scrap in particular). Prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' (especially electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances) rose +0.1%.

- Exports : export prices increased +0.5%. The biggest influence on the increase of the total m-o-m export price index was due to a growth in prices of 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' +1.1% (especially iron and steel). Prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' increased +0.8% (office machines and automatic data-processing machines in particular). Among sections important in terms of weight, only prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' decreased -2.9% (mainly petroleum products).

- Terms of trade reached a positive figure of 101.0% (by 0.5 percentage points more than in August). It is the highest value since December 2000. The highest terms of trade value was reached in 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' 103.4%. Terms of trade value of 'machinery and transport equipment' amounted to 100.7%. Negative value of terms of trade was only in 'beverages and tobacco' 92.4%.

Year-on-year comparison:

- Imports: import prices increased by 0.4% (0.6% in August) and were influenced the most by price growth in 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' (+7.0%, mainly non-ferrous metals), whereas the biggest decrease was among prices of 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' (-5.5%, mainly metalliferous ores and metal scrap). Prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' dropped (-1.7%, telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment in particular). In compliance with the development on world markets, 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' prices dropped m-o-m for the first time since March 2004 (-0.1%, mainly coal, but also petroleum and petroleum products).

- Exports: the biggest influence on the increase of export prices by 1.1% (0.2% in August) was due to a growth in prices of 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' (+2.6%, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel in particular). Marked price increase was also in prices of 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' by 12.3% and 'chemicals and related products' by 7.6% (especially plastics). A more marked decline was mainly among prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (-7.0%, especially coal and petroleum products). Prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' decreased (-0.4%, mainly metalworking machinery).

- The terms of trade reached the figure of 100.7% (by 1.1 percentage point more than in August) and were positive for the first time since March 2005. The increasing terms of trade were influenced by petroleum price development on world markets and Czech Crown development to foreign currencies. Terms of trade value was high especially in the sections 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' 118.8%, 'chemicals and related products' 106.1% and 'miscellaneous manufactured articles' 105.0%, in 'machinery and transport equipment' it amounted to 101.3% (in August 100.6%). On the contrary, the lowest figure was recorded for 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' 93.1% and 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' 95.9%; however, increasing figures were in both sections during the last months.

Month-on-month comparison:

- The world prices of industrial raw materials and food covered by the index decreased again in total, this time by 1.8% in October. The main reason was continuing decrease of prices of crude oil on the world markets. Prices of Brent petroleum decreased by 6.9% and in total with natural gas by 2.3%. Also prices of wood dropped and in total textile raw material prices as well. On the contrary, food, rubber, and leather prices increased. Metal prices after steep changes in the first half-year changed only slightly, they increased in total by 1.0%.

Year-on-year comparison:

- In October, the world prices were up by 12.9% in total (in September 16.4%) and thus already the fifth month slowed down their growth. Lower increment was also for crude oil and gas prices in total: 11.1% (in September 14.7%). Metal prices increased the most markedly already for the eighth month, this time by 51.7% (however, +57.5% in September). Also prices of other aggregated sections remained higher, only wood and textile raw material prices still were under the level of the last year.

1) The world prices follow current prices in original currencies in commodity markets and indicate in advance the character of the future development of the Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.

Analysis - Development of external trade price indices in the third quarter of 2006

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Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, phone (+420) 274 052 196, e-mail: jiri.choun@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-06 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic

7202-06 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
Detailed on (Internet: /produkty/indexy-svetovych-cen-prumyslovych-surovin-a-potravin-csu-prosinec-q7wm573ad9 )
The data released are final.