Export and import price indices - November 2005

In November, import prices decreased by 0.8% month-on-month and export prices by 0.9%. Year-on-year, import prices increased by 1.4%, while export prices decreased by 2.9%. Terms of trade were negative again: 99.9% m-o-m and 95.8% y-o-y. The CZSO world price index of raw materials and food increased in December by 1.9% m-o-m and by 40.6% y-o-y.
Month-on-month comparison:

- After a temporary rise in October, external trade prices decreased again in November. Import prices decreased by 0.8% (growth by 1.3% in October), export prices by 0.9% (growth by 1.1% in October). The main reason for this development was the appreciation of the Czech koruna against EUR on the one hand, and the continuing decrease in the prices of ‘petroleum and petroleum products’ in world markets in November on the other hand. This decrease resulted in a drop of the import and export prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' and the related prices of 'chemicals and related products'.

- Imports: import prices were most influenced by a decline in the prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (-2.3%; gas prices increased, petroleum prices decreased – like in world markets). This corresponded to a decrease in the prices of 'chemicals and related products' (-0.9%, mainly organic chemicals). The prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' decreased (-0.6%, in particular ‘telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment’). Among important sections observed, only the prices of 'food and live animals' rose (+0.7%, especially vegetables and fruit).

- Exports: the biggest influence on the decrease in the total m-o-m export price index was a drop in the prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' (exclusively due to exchange rate effects) (-0.7%, especially road vehicles). The highest price drop was recorded, like in imports, for 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (-4.1%, in particular petroleum products) and 'chemicals and related products' (-1.7%, especially organic chemicals and plastics). Only the prices of 'animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes' were up (+0.4%).

- November 2005 was already the ninth successive month when terms of trade were below 100%. They reached 99.9%. The lowest terms of trade were again reported for the section 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (98.2%), the highest for 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' (102.0%). Terms of trade for 'machinery and transport equipment' amounted to 99.9%.

Year-on-year comparison:

- Import prices increased by 1.4% (+0.8% in October), while export prices decreased by 2.9% (-2.6% in October). The development of external trade prices in November was markedly influenced by y-o-y appreciation of the Czech koruna against EUR.

- Import prices were most affected by higher prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (+36.5%, mainly gas, petroleum and petroleum products). The prices of 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' and 'food and live animals' increased as well (both +0.2%). Prices in the other sections observed were on the decrease, which holds among important sections especially for the prices of 'miscellaneous manufactured articles' (-8.2%). The prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' dropped (-2.4%, in particular ‘office machines and automatic data-processing machines’).

- The biggest influence on the decrease of the total y-o-y export price index was a fall in the prices of 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' (-6.1%, mainly iron and steel). The prices of 'machinery and transport equipment' decreased (-2.6%, in particular ‘office machines and automatic data-processing machines’). Like in imports, among important sections in terms of the weight, especially the prices of 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' increased (+5.9%, mainly gas and petroleum products).

- Terms of trade reached 95.8%, which was by 0.8 percentage points less than in October and the lowest level since October 2000. The dominant cause was exchange rate development, because the koruna appreciated against EUR and depreciated against USD. Low terms of trade were recorded especially for 'mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials' (77.6%) and 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' (95.7%); terms of trade were higher especially in 'miscellaneous manufactured articles' (106.6%). Terms of trade in ‘machinery and transport equipment’ stood at 99.8% (i.e. by 0.1 percentage points less than in October).
Month-on-month comparison:

- The world prices of raw materials and food covered by the index increased in total by 1.9% in December after a temporary drop in November. The main reason was a sharp increase in the prices of metals (+9.2%, which is the highest growth recorded since 2001). The prices of mineral fuels rose moderately in December: natural gas by 0.4% and petroleum Brent by 2.4% (various opposing effects were at play, cold weather in the northeast of the USA dominating in the end). The prices of textile raw materials, rubber, food and wood increased as well. Among the sections observed, only the prices of leather decreased very slightly.

Year-on-year comparison:

- In December, the world prices were up by 40.6% in total (i.e. by 8.1 percentage points more than in November). The price of natural gas basically maintained its growth and rose by 49.5%, the price of petroleum Brent increased by 43.2% (+26.0% in November). The prices of metals continued accelerating markedly (+24.7% in total in December). Only prices of leather and wood dropped.

1) The world prices follow current prices in original currencies in commodity markets and indicate in advance the character of the future development of the Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.

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Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, tel. (+420) 274 052 196, e-mail: jiri.choun@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-05 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
7202-05 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
Detailed on (Internet: /katalog-produktu )
The data released are final.