Export and import price indices - March 2004
Export prices of machinery and transport equipment increased
Publication Date: 14. 05. 2004
Product Code: r-7201-04
Goods import and export price indices in the CR
March 2004
March 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- Both import and export prices increased in March (+1.0% and 1.2%, respectively) and thus rose already the fourth month. Prices of all measured sections were higher. The amount of prices, especially import prices, was influenced also by depreciation of the Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to main foreign currencies, EUR and USD, in particular. The level of export prices was higher than that of import prices and terms of trade thus reached favourable values again.
Imports : The highest price increase was recorded by the CZSO for ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ (+5.3%, for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials, in particular). The most significant influence on the increase of the total import price index was due to this increase together with increasing prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+1.1%). The second month continued rather a fast growth of prices of ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (+2.6%, metalliferous ores and metal scrap, in particular, due to an increase of prices of scrap). On the contrary, the slowest growth for import prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ is recorded already the second month. After stagnation in February, they were higher only by 0.3% in March.
Exports : The same way as in imports, export price growth increased in March by 0.5 percentage point in comparison with February. The highest price growth was recorded for ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials,’ too (+3.3%, for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials, in particular). The increase of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ prices (+1.8%, iron and steel, in particular) together with an increase of prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (+0.7% electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, in particular) affected the increase of the total export price index most significantly. Export prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ rose already the fifth month and together with a slow increase of import prices in this section they significantly affect the long-term positive terms of trade in total.
- Terms of trade were 100.2% (the same as in February) and thus reached a positive value for the seventh successive month. This value was the highest for ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (100.7%). Terms of trade of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ kept favourable value of 100.4%. Unfavourable terms of trade were in ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ and ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (98.1% and 99.1%, respectively).
Year-on-year comparison:
- Import prices after three months of y-o-y decreases increased by 0.6% in March. The highest growth of import prices was recorded for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (+7.7% similarly as in the m-o-m comparison mainly for metalliferous ores and metal scrap). Price increase of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (4.4%, non-ferrous metals in particular) had the biggest impact on the growth of the total index of import prices. The increase of prices of non-ferrous metals is also in accord with their long-term price increase on commodity exchange. The decrease of prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ by 8.6% affected the reduction of increase of the total import price index most significantly. In other measured commodity groups, prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased (-0.1%, mainly telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment).
- Export prices continued in their growth, which started in April 2003 when prices of all main measured commodity groups increased. This increase speeded up the third month already. In March, export prices increased by 3.2% (the highest price growth since March 2001), which was by 0.7 percentage point more than in February. Export prices more than import prices were influenced by the development of the Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to main foreign currencies, especially to EUR and USD. The most significant price growth continues since November 2003 for ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ (this time +7.8%, especially in electric current, coal and gas). The rise in prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+4.7%, iron and steel in particular) and ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (+2.8%, mainly office machines and automatic data-processing machines) had a dominant impact on the increase of the total index of export prices. It was the highest price growth of this section since September 2003 and together with the drop in import prices the ‘machinery and transport equipment’ section had the most significant influence on favourable y-o-y terms of trade. Only beverages and tobacco prices decreased (-7.8%).
- Terms of trade reached the value of 102.6%. It is the best result since April 2001. This value is the highest in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ already since October 2003. In March 2004, this value reached 117.9%. Long-term favourable figures were also recorded for ‘machinery and transport equipment’ and ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ (102.9% and 101.6%, respectively). The terms of trade value in ‘machinery and transport equipment’ increased by 0.3 percentage point in comparison with February. Terms of trade of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ reach favourable values already since May 2001 and have a long-term most positive effect on the total terms of trade. Unfavourable terms of trade values were in the most significant items in terms of weight in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ and ‘chemicals and related products’ (95.9% and 99.7%, respectively).
CZSO world price index of raw materials and food 1)
April 2004
April 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- The world prices covered by the index increased in April only by 0.7% in total, which was by 2.5 percentage points less than in March. The low growth was caused mainly by an increase of the most significant commodity – petroleum Brent only by 0.4% (in March growth of 8.0%). At the beginning of April, factors causing rather decreasing of petroleum prices were observed: exceeding of limits on petroleum production by the OPEC and repair of the third biggest oil refinery in the USA on time after the fire. However, price of oil was increasing during April, which was caused by an increasing tension in the Near East and low supplies of petrol in the USA before the oncoming motor season. Oil price thus reached its highest value since October 2000 at the end of the month. Natural gas price after decline in March by 0.8% increased in April by 1.6%. Prices of metals and food after a several months increase remained almost unchanged in April (drop 0.2%, respectively growth 0.2%). Prices of textile raw materials and leather decreased. What increased were primarily prices of wood.
Year-on-year comparison:
The world prices in April were 13.9% up in total, which was by 5.2 percentage points more than in March and it was also the highest y-o-y growth since November 2003. An increase of oil prices by +32.3% had the most marked influence on the growth of the total index. The reason was lower oil prices in April 2003 when prices decreased after quick advance of American army in Iraq, an increase of the petroleum supply in the USA and cancellation of the general strike in Venezuela. The increase of metal prices speeded up in comparison with previous months (increase 43.7% in April), wood prices and rubber prices increased, too. On the contrary, growth of total index was decreased mainly by natural gas prices (-2.7%) and prices of textile raw materials and leather.
1) The world prices follow actual prices in terms of original currencies read at commodity exchanges and indicate in advance the nature of the future development of Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.
Analysis - Development of external trade price indices in the first quarter of 2004
Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, tel. (+420) 27405 2196, e-mail: jiri.choun@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-04 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
7202-04 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
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The released data are definitive.