Export and import price indices - February 2004
Terms of trade more and more favourable
Publication Date: 15. 04. 2004
Product Code: r-7201-04
Goods import and export price indices in the CR
February 2004
February 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- Both import and export prices increased (+0.5% and 0.7%, respectively) and thus rose already the third month. Again, the level of export prices was higher than that of import prices and terms of trade thus reached favourable values.
Imports : Prices of almost all observed commodity groups increased. Only prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ recorded no changes in total. The highest price increase was recorded by the CZSO for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (+2.4%, in particular metalliferous ores and metal scrap due to higher prices of scrap). The most significant influence on the increase of the total import price index was due to an increase of prices of ‘chemicals and related products’ (+1.4%, fertilizers in particular).
Exports : Prices increased in all measured groups already the second month. The highest price growth was recorded for ‘chemicals and related products’ (+2.5%, plastics in primary forms in particular), which together with an increase of prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+1.2%) affected the increase of the total export price index most significantly. Prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ and ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ rose more significantly, too (like in import, prices of scrap increased, too). Price growth was recorded by the CZSO for ‘machinery and transport equipment’ by 0.4% (metalworking machinery in particular).
- Terms of trade were 100.2% and thus reached a positive value for the sixth successive month. The highest value was for ‘chemicals and related products’ (101.1%). Terms of trade of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ reached favourable value of 100.4% and in comparison with the last month were higher by 0.1 percentage point. Unfavourable terms of trade were, strictly speaking, only in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ and ‘food and live animals’ (99.2% and 99.8%, respectively).
Year-on-year comparison:
- Import prices decreased already for the third month, this time by 0.2%. During the same time, also prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ were markedly decreasing, in February even by -13.5% (especially in petroleum, petroleum products and related materials). However, this time it was not caused by a decrease of prices in the reference period, but by high prices in February 2003, when prices on commodity exchange increased especially due to the expected conflict in Iraq. Prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ had the biggest impact on the drop of the total index of import prices (the same as last month). Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased (–0.4%, mainly telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment). On the contrary, the highest growth of import prices was recorded for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (+5.5% similarly as in the m-o-m comparison for metalliferous ores and metal scrap). An increase of prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ by 3.7% (non-ferrous metals in particular) affected the reduction of decrease of the total import price index most significantly. The increase of prices of non-ferrous metals is in accord with their long-term price increase on commodity exchange.
- Export prices continued in their growth, which started in April 2003, when prices of all main measured commodity groups increased. This increase speeded up the second month already and in February 2004 their rise was 2.5%, which was by 0.4 percentage points more than in January. The most significant price growth (it continues since November 2003) was for ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ (+7.4%, especially in electric current, gas and coal). The rise in prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (+2.2%, mainly office machines and automatic data-processing machines) and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+3.2%, iron and steel in particular) had a dominant impact on the increase of the total index of export prices. Only beverages and tobacco prices decreased (-9.1%).
- Terms of trade reached the value of 102.7%. It is again the best result since June 2002 and at the same time it is by 0.3 percentage points more favourable than in January 2004. The positive figure thus has been increasing already for three successive months. The highest value since October 2003 is in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’. In February 2004, this value reached 124.2. Long-term favourable figures were also recorded for ‘machinery and transport equipment’ and ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ (102.6% and 101.9%, respectively). The terms of trade value in ‘machinery and transport equipment’ stood at the same favourable level as the last month. Terms of trade of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ reach favourable values since May 2001 and have a long-term positive effect on the total terms of trade. Unfavourable terms of trade were in the more significant items in terms of weight in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (97.0% and 99.5%, respectively).
CZSO world price index of raw materials and food 1)
March 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- The world prices covered by the index increased in March by 3.2% in total, which was the highest m-o-m growth since February 2003. This growth was caused particularly by significant price growth of petroleum by 8.0%. This price increase had many reasons of which the most important was concern about decrease of petroleum production by the OPEC, increasing import of oil by China, fear of politic instability in Venezuela (the third biggest oil producer in OPEC), concern about world safety and an explosion and fire in the third biggest oil refinery in the USA. Thus, oil prices reached for a short time during March their highest level since October 1990 when oil prices sharply jumped up due to the Kuwait crisis. The growth of the total world price index was reduced by a decrease of gas prices by 0.8% and a decrease of prices of textile raw materials and leather. Prices of rubber and food grew significantly. After previous long-term growth prices of metals increased only slightly by 1.9% in March.
Year-on-year comparison:
- The world prices were in March 8.7% up in total, which was by 6.6 percentage points more than in February. Similarly as at m-o-m comparison, also at y-o-y comparison a material increase of oil prices, this time by +10.6%, had the most marked influence on the growth of the total index. The reason was higher oil prices mentioned and lower price in March 2003, when prices decreased after quick advance of American army in Iraq and OPEC promise to compensate Iraq oil supply cut-offs caused by the Iraq conflict. The price of gas increased by 3.2% only and like in m-o-m comparison it reduced together with price drops of textile raw materials and leather an increase of the total world price index. On the contrary, prices of metals rose markedly for the long-term.
In average, world prices increased +5.5% in total in Q1 2004. The most dynamic growth was recorded for prices of metals (+33.4%), wood (+44.7%) and rubber (+27.4%). Distinctively lower price growth was in the most significant commodity in terms of weight – gas (+5.4%), and in particular crude oil (+1.9%). In average, prices of leather and especially of food decreased (-1.4%).
1) The world prices follow actual prices in terms of original currencies read at commodity exchanges and indicate in advance the nature of the future development of Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.
Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, tel. (+420) 27405 2196, e-mail: choun@gw.czso.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-04 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
Detailed on (Internet: http://www.czso.cz/eng/edicniplan.nsf/p/7201-04 )
7202-04 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
The released data are definitive.