Export and import price indices - December 2004
Strong Czech crown and cheaper crude oil – the most significant effects on external trade prices in December
Publication Date: 14. 02. 2005
Product Code: r-7201-04
Goods import and export price indices in the CR
December 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- Both import and export prices decreased by -1.7% and -1.3%, respectively in December 2004 and thus were decreasing already the second month. One of the main causes of this decrease was marked appreciation of CZK to EUR and USD against the previous month.
- Imports: import prices have been influenced the most by prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’, which dropped in total by -4.8%, i.e. the most from the observed sections (especially petroleum and petroleum products prices decreased in accord with the development on world markets). Further, ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ prices decreased markedly by -3.0%. Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ were decreasing already the fourth month, this time by -1.4%; similarly as in November, prices of almost all of the observed divisions of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased.
- Exports : The biggest price decrease has been recorded also for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (-6.0%, petroleum products in particular) and closely related to that was price decrease of ‘chemicals and related products‘ as well (-2.8%, organic chemicals and plastics in particular). Like in November, the biggest influence on the decrease of the total m-o-m export price index was due to price decrease of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (-1.1%, all of the observed divisions decreased, especially metalworking machinery). Prices of this section have been decreasing already since August. Only prices of ‘beverages and tobacco’ increased again, this time by +4.3%.
- Terms of trade reached the value of 100.4%, i.e. by 0.4 percentage points less than in November. As for significant sections in terms of weight, the highest value of terms of trade was for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (101.4%) and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (100.6%), while the lowest for ‘food and live animals’ (98.5%), ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (98.7%) and ‘chemicals and related products’ (98.9%). Terms of trade of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ reached the value of 100.3% and thus increased by 0.2 percentage points against November.
Year-on-year comparison:
- Import prices increased y-o-y only by +0.1% in December, which was the lowest increase since February 2004. Besides strong CZK and cheaper crude oil also continual price decrease of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (-4.2%, i.e. the least since February 2003, telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment in particular) had a marked influence on the total index. Growth of almost all sections slowed down, the most in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’. Despite this slowdown, prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ increased the most y-o-y (+14.1%, petroleum, petroleum products and gas in particular) and had significant influence on the total index. Prices of ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ have been slowing down their growth already since July (y-o-y growth by +3.4%, metalliferous ores in particular).
- Export prices slowed down their y-o-y growth rate, too, to 2.5% (4.3% in November). Similarly to import prices, the lowest price growth since February 2004 was observed at all sections except for ‘beverages and tobacco’. Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ continued to decrease since August (by -3.7% in December, i.e. the highest drop since December 2002, general industrial machinery and equipment in particular). The most significant price growth has been taking place already since November 2003 in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials‘ (this time by +22.6%, especially in prices of coal and petroleum products); however, it was by 6.7 percentage points less than in November. Prices of ‘chemicals and related products’ increased (+11.6%) in relation to the price growth of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’. However, the rise in prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+10.4%, iron and steel and manufactures of metals prices in particular) had a dominant impact on the increase of the total index of export prices.
- Terms of trade reached the value of 102.4%, i.e. the highest value since March. Highly positive terms of trade figures were recorded in significant sections in terms of weight especially for ‘chemicals and related products’ (110.9%), ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (107.7%) and ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials‘ (107.4%); on the contrary, terms of trade were lower in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (97.3%) and ‘food and live animals’ (98.7%). For ‘machinery and transport equipment’, they reached the value of 100.5%, i.e. by 0.2 percentage points more than in November.
Development in the year 2004
On average for the entire year 2004 , import prices increased y-o-y by +1.6% and export prices +3.7%. In comparison to 2003, import prices increased by +1.9 percentage points and export prices by +2.8 percentage points. Growth of external trade prices thus accelerated. The most significant effects on external trade price growth in 2004 were due to price growth of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (which was reflected later in ‘chemicals and related products‘ price growth, organic chemicals and plastics in particular) and further price increase of metals, especially iron, steel and scrap (related to that was also increasing of prices, 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' in particular).
Imports: Y-o-y, prices of 'crude materials, inedible, except fuels' increased the most (+9.1%, metalliferous ores and metal scrap especially) together with ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (+6.5%, petroleum and petroleum products in particular). The biggest price decrease was for ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (-1.4%, especially telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment).
Exports: As in imports, significant y-o-y growth of prices was recorded for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (+20.1%, coal and petroleum products in particular), as well as for 'manufactured goods classified chiefly by material' (+8.2%, especially iron, steel and manufactures of metals) and ‘chemicals and related products‘ (+7.3%, mainly organic chemicals and plastics). Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ increased by +0.3% (especially machinery specialized for particular industries). In exports, only prices of 'beverages and tobacco' decreased y-o-y on average by -9.1%.
Terms of trade reached in total the positive value of 102.1% y-o-y in 2004, i.e. by 0.9 percentage points more than in 2003.
CZSO world price index of raw materials and food 1)
January 2005
Month-on-month comparison:
- The world prices covered by the index increased rather markedly by 7.9% in total in January (after decreases in November and December 2004). The main cause of this development was petroleum Brent price increase by +10.5% and natural gas +8.6%. Crude oil price increased primarily due to mining problems in Iraq, Nigeria, Gulf of Mexico and North See, and also due to cold weather in the northeastern USA and concern about reduction of mining quotas by OPEC. Prices of textile raw materials and wood increased in January 2005. On the contrary, prices of food slightly decreased in total and drop of prices of metals (this time by -0.7%, mainly precious metals), leather and rubber continued.
Year-on-year comparison:
- In January, the world prices were 32.9% up in total and after slackening in the end of 2004 they accelerated their growth again. This was caused by faster y-o-y growth of petroleum Brent prices (+45.2%, i.e. by 9.4 percentage points more than in December 2004) and natural gas (+40.6%, i.e. by 14.4 percentage points more). Y-o-y, prices of metals, food and wood rose, too, but slower than in December (e.g. metals by +13.9%, i.e. by 7.6 percentage points less). Prices of textile raw materials, leather and rubber were lower as usual.
1) The world prices follow actual prices in terms of original currencies read at commodity exchanges and indicate in advance the nature of the future development of Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.
Analysis - Development of external trade price indices in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 2004
Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, tel. (+420) 27405 2196, e-mail: jiri.choun@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-04 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
7202-05 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
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The released data are definitive.