Export and import price indices - April 2004
Big increase of iron and steel prices continued
Publication Date: 14. 06. 2004
Product Code: r-7201-04
Goods import and export price indices in the CR
April 2004
April 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- Both import and export prices increased in April (+0.2% and 0.4%, respectively) and thus rose already the fifth month. In either case the price growth was by 0.8 percentage point lower than in March. The amount of prices was influenced again by development of the Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to main foreign currencies, EUR and USD, in particular. The growth of export prices was higher again than that of import prices and terms of trade thus reached favourable values again.
Imports : The highest price increase was recorded by the CZSO for ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ already the second month (+3.4%, for petroleum in particular). The increase of prices was also fully in accord with the price development on world commodity exchange. The most significant influence on the increase of the total import price index was due to this increase together with increasing prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+0.3%). Prices of ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ after a rather fast growth in the previous two months, mainly due to an increase of prices of scrap increased only by 0.4% in April. On the contrary, import prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ were lower –0.3% after four months of growth.
Exports : The highest price growth was recorded for ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ +2.6% (+7.9% iron and steel mainly as well as manufactures of metals, where the influence of higher prices of inputs, i.e. metal scrap in particular, was reflected with some time delay in comparison with import prices). This increase affected the increase of the total export price index most significantly, too. The highest export price decline was for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (by 0.9% metalliferous ores and metal scrap in particular, where after steep price growth especially in February and March a decrease of prices of primary raw material occurred in April). On the contrary, the highest price decrease of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ prices (-0.4%, machinery specialized for particular industries and road vehicles, in particular, both due to development of the Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to main foreign currencies, EUR especially) affected the decrease of the total export price index most significantly. This was at the same time the first decline in prices of this section since October 2003.
- Terms of trade were 100.2% (the same as in February and March) and thus reached a positive value for the eighth successive month. This value was the highest for ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (102.3%) already the second moth, especially for manufactures of metals. Unfavourable terms of trade were mainly in ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ and ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (96.8% and 98.7%, respectively). Terms of trade of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ amounted to 99.9% and thus reached unfavourable value for the first time since June 2003.
Year-on-year comparison:
- Import prices increased by 1.6% in April. They rose already the second month and in comparison with the previous month their growth increased by 1.0 percentage point. The highest growth of import prices was recorded (as every month since December 2003 already) for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (+7.9% since the beginning of the year 2004 for ores and metal scrap especially). Price increase of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+4.4%, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel in particular) had the biggest impact on the growth of the total index of import prices the same as in March. The increase of prices of non-ferrous metals is also in accord with their long-term price increase on world commodity exchange. The decrease was only for prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (-0.2% mainly telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment) and ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ by -0.4%. Y-o-y import prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ have been decreasing since November 2000 continuously.
- Export prices continued in their growth, which started in April 2003. In all main measured commodity groups the price growth accelerated for the fourth month already. In April, export prices rose by 3.7% (the highest price growth since March 2001), which was by 0.5 percentage point more than in March. Export prices again more than import prices were influenced by the development of the Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to main foreign currencies, especially to EUR and USD. The most significant price growth continues since November 2003 for ‘mineral fuels, lubricant and related materials’ (this time +11.2%, especially in electric current). The rise in prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ by 7.2% (+20.3%, iron and steel in particular) and ‘machinery and transport equipment’ +2.6%, (mainly metalworking machinery) had a dominant impact on the increase of the total index of export prices. Only beverages and tobacco prices decreased (-9.3%).
- Terms of trade reached the value of 102.1%, which was by 0.5 percentage point less than in March. Nevertheless, the terms of trade are favourable already since April 2001. This value is the highest in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ already since October 2003. In April 2004, this value reached 110.6%. Long-term favourable figures were also recorded for ‘machinery and transport equipment’ and ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ (102.8% and 102.3%, respectively). The terms of trade value in ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased by 0.1 percentage point in comparison with March, however, the value is still positive already since May 2001 and has a long-term most positive effect on the total terms of trade. Unfavourable terms of trade values were in the most significant items in terms of weight in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ and ‘chemicals and related products’ (94.0% and 98.4%, respectively).
CZSO world price index of raw materials and food 1)
May 2004
May 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- The world prices covered by the index increased in total markedly by 5.0% in May and thus it was the highest m-o-m growth since January 2003. The growth was caused mainly by an increase of the most significant commodity – petroleum Brent by 12.7%. This was the highest price growth of this commodity since December 2002, when the danger of the war in Iraq started to be real. During May 2004 thus some types of oil reached its maximum since October 1990 (i.e. since the Iraq occupation of Kuwait). The reason of the increase of oil prices in May 2004 was, first of all, high demand in the USA and China together with a low performance of oil refinery in the USA and low supplies of petrol before the oncoming motor season. Oil prices increased also due to the tension on the Near East and a higher activity of speculators on oil exchange. These step by step leave business with metals and that is also why their price decreased m-o-m by 6.6%. Price of natural gas rose only by 0.7%.
Year-on-year comparison:
The world prices in May were 19.3% up in total, which was by 5.4 percentage points more than in April and it was also the highest y-o-y growth since March 2003. An increase of petroleum Brent prices by +46.6% had the most marked influence on the growth of the total index. It was the highest y-o-y increase since February 2003, when the price of oil was high due to the expectation of war in Iraq and simultaneously there was a low oil price base to compare in February 2002 (decrease of interest in air transport after the terrorist attack in the USA in September 2001). The y-o-y increase of prices of oil in May 2004 was caused by an increase in that time as well as by the low price in May 2003, when the price after the first terrorist attack rose, but still had low level after a rather quick termination of the war in Iraq. Prices of metals rose by 27.8%, i.e. still above the average, but in comparison with April this growth was by 15.9 percentage points lower. Prices of rubber and wood still held their high growth; on the contrary, prices of natural gas were lower by 2.3%.
1) The world prices follow actual prices in terms of original currencies read at commodity exchanges and indicate in advance the nature of the future development of Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.
Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, tel. (+420) 27405 2196, e-mail: choun@gw.czso.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-04 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
Detailed on (Internet: http://www.czso.cz/eng/edicniplan.nsf/p/7201-04 )
7202-04 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
The released data are definitive.