Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 1/2026

Statistika, 106(1): 5–20
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.17

Abstract
Inflation expectations have become a significant concern for monetary policy settings in the CEE region due to the sharp rise in inflation. The absence of market-based inflation expectations complicates the assessment of anchoring inflation expectations in the economy, especially during periods of extreme shock. The experience of the EM space with more developed financial markets allows for the estimation of unobserved long-term inflation expectations in the CEE region replicating market-based expectations. A panel regression model was used to estimate long-term marked-based inflation expectations in Czechia, Poland, and Hungary. The results show that market-based inflation expectations in the CEE region have significantly lower volatility compared to survey-based expectations, which are often used as proxy variables by central banks for monetary policy decision-making. The results are indicating that survey-based inflation expectations cannot be used as a proxy for long-term inflation expectations due to significantly different developments and characteristics that could lead to erroneous monetary policy decisions.

Keywords
CEE region, inflation expectations, panel regression

Statistika, 106(1): 21–34
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.15

Abstract
The aim of the paper is to identify the relationships between economic and demographic indicators in the Slovak Republic by NUTS 3 over a 10-year period. The demographic indicators used in the analysis are population, share of seniors, crude migration rate, crude mortality rate, crude fertility rate and economically active population. The economic indicators were GDP per capita, Gini coefficient and poverty risk rate. We used panel data models. It can be concluded that the population, the share of the seniors, the crude migration balance and the crude mortality rate have a positive effect on GDP per capita. Particularly surprising is the result of the analysis concerning the share of seniors, as GDP per capita is expected to grow in the next period as the share of seniors in the population increases. The share of seniors, the crude migration balance and the share of the economically active population have a negative impact on the poverty risk ratio.

Keywords
Panel data, population aging, regional differences, economic indicators, demographic indicators

Statistika, 106(1): 35–48
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.26

Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyse the cancellation of life insurance contracts on death using an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The study focuses on identifying risk factors that influence the time to cancellation, with the objective of determining which to identify those insureds who cancel their policies the fastest. The analysis revealed several notable findings regarding the impact of premium payment frequency on contract cancellation. Specifically, yearly premium payments were found to extend the time to cancellation by 27% compared with monthly payments, holding all other factors constant. For contracts with monthly premiums, 10% of clients cancel within approximately 376 days, whereas for yearly premiums, the corresponding period is 476 days. Additionally, the results indicate that clients who did not conclude their contracts through the tied agent distribution channel tend to cancel their policies sooner. The AFT model was constructed using established R packages for survival analysis.

Keywords
Survival analysis, accelerated failure time model, censoring, cancellation of an insurance contract, life insurance

Statistika, 106(1): 49–60
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.23

Abstract
China has remained one of the fastest growing economies of the world for an appreciable period; however, there are concerns around the employment content of these growth achievements. These concerns become more important keeping in view demographic profile of China. To this end current study attempts to estimate employment elasticity of China’s economic growth and examine its macroeconomic determinants. The study uses annual time series data for the period of 1980–2019. Time varying Kalman filter is used to estimate employment elasticity and ARDL is used to examine its macroeconomic determinants. The results of the study revealed drastically low level of employment elasticity in China during the study period. Further the study found that inflation and openness had a negative impact while depreciation had a positive impact on employment elasticity in the long run. Additionally, human capital formation and services sector share have positive but insignificant impact. Further, as a robustness check, the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimation was conducted, and its results were found to be consistent with the ARDL model.

Keywords
Economic growth, employment growth, employment elasticity, TVP approach, China

Statistika, 106(1): 61–82
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.21

Abstract
This study provides evidence that military expenditure hinders sustainable development within the BRICS nations. Analyzing data from 2000 to 2022 using a Bayesian regression methodology for panel data, the results reveal that increased military spending negatively impacts sustainability in these emerging economies. Policymakers are urged to prioritize sustainable initiatives over expanding military spending to promote a long-term growth and stability. The effects of military spending on sustainable development vary depending on measurement metrics, such as military spending per capita or as a percentage of GDP. Additionally, it is found that international commerce and foreign direct investment (FDI) are vital for advancing sustainable development, while factors like corruption and energy consumption reduce sustainable development levels. The effect of economic growth on sustainable development remains ambiguous. The findings strongly indicate that military expenditure has a detrimental effect on the progress of BRICS countries toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Keywords
Bayesian regression, BRICS, military spending, sustainable development

Statistika, 106(1): 83–91
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.1

Abstract
Tanzania's exports are mainly based on unprocessed agricultural products and mineral resources, which is not beneficial and does not improve the international competitiveness of the country's economy. Proper identification of factors that provide opportunities for improving the situation in Tanzanian exports requires the construction of appropriate econometric models. This paper proposes the use of a gravity model of trade, as it allows for the inclusion of foreign trade flows in bilateral relations. This paper argues that in gravity models, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow limits Tanzanian exports. Factors that have a significant and positive impact on Tanzania's exports are GDP of partner countries, GDP of Tanzania, imports of Tanzania, the common language and the colonial ties with partner trading countries. The results presented in the article allowed for the indication of the strengths and weaknesses of Tanzanian exports and the formulation of recommendations that may be useful for decision-makers in taking actions to improve the competitiveness of the Tanzanian economy.

Keywords
Export, gravity trade model, competitiveness of the economy, Tanzania

Statistika, 106(1): 92–103
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.25

Abstract
This paper introduces the Fourier-LSTAR (FLSTAR) test, which addresses the critical challenge of testing for unit roots in time series characterized by both unknown structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics. We propose and evaluate this novel unit root test, which integrates a logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model with a flexible Fourier function to capture such complexities. Critical values and simulation properties of the test are derived, demonstrating its robustness and stable performance across varying conditions. We apply the FLSTAR test to annual unemployment rates for CIVETS countries and find that unemployment hysteresis holds for most nations, except Colombia, where the plucking model is applicable. These results highlight the heterogeneous nature of unemployment dynamics in emerging economies and underscore the importance of employing robust testing procedures that accommodate data complexities to avoid misleading policy inferences. The FLSTAR test demonstrates superior power and size properties in Monte Carlo simulations, offering a valuable new tool for empirical researchers.

Keywords
Unemployment hysteresis, Unit Root Test, Fourier-LSTAR, structural breaks, nonlinear dynamics, CIVETS countries

Statistika, 106(1): 104–112
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.30

Abstract
Official statistics are part of the infrastructure of democratic societies. As societies have changed statistics have changed accordingly, not so much in content but in ways of production and dissemination. This paper describes important trends in official statistics over approximately the last 50 years. 
The trends considered comprise the general quality revolution in the last century and recognition of official statistics as a public good available for free. The Internet caused a shift in the way statistics were spread, while more use of secondary (non-statistical) input data has changed the way of producing statistics. 
Some thoughts on the future development of official statistics are included. Now the data era threatens to replace statistics. Artificial intelligence will affect both the way statistics are produced, and not least how statistics are understood and used in society. Quality frameworks for official statistics may be changed, but the main principles or core values of such statistics should remain. Cooperation and statistical literacy are keys.

Keywords
Official statistics, quality, development trends

Statistika, 106(1): 113–127
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.20

Abstract

Volunteer work constitutes an important input into the activities of non-profit institutions and for society as a whole. Volunteering is a beneficial activity, for which no wage or remuneration is obtained, namely not even in the form of a service in return or in kind.
There are two main sources of the data on volunteer work, the data from Satellite Account of Non-profit institutions and the data from the Sample survey on volunteer work by Labour force survey. Both data sources provide a basis for valuation of volunteer work.
The article represents methodology of Satellite Account of Non-profit institutions, which presents basic information about volunteers and valuation of volunteer work organized by non-profit organizations. The article also presents methodology of the Sample survey on volunteer work by Labour Force Survey, which provides a comprehensive overview of organized and unorganized (direct) volunteering in Czechia. Based on the data from these two sources, the article also presents a methodology for estimation of the value of volunteer work and compares the specific values of these estimates.

Keywords
Volunteer, volunteering, satellite account of non-profit institutions, labour force survey, valuation