Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 3/2018

The pension liabilities drew a wide attention due to ageing of population, especially the liabilities originating in the operation of the unfunded scheme (pay-as-you-go). Changing demographic situation and the interest of users gave rise to a request on the provision of a new data aiming to provide a basis for analysis and the decision-making of policy-makers. The purpose of this paper is to present the calculations of the total pension liabilities for the Czech Republic which were first released by the Czech Statistical Office in 2018. Besides, the paper presents a sensitive analysis and also compares the final figures internationally.

Keywords
Pension liabilities, pension systems, ageing of population

The study described in this article presents the first physical supply and use tables (PSUT) ever based on the recently published methodological standard for System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA). The tables were compiled for the Czech Republic for 2014 and can be used for increasing analytical potential of the economy wide material flow analysis and indicators. The subsequent compilation procedure was described in detail so that it can serve as a source of inspiration and a benchmark for other researchers and/or statisticians. The major shortcoming of the PSUT is that not all needed data was readily available in physical units and required estimations based on proxies. Some parts of the tables are therefore burdened with a degree of uncertainty.

Keywords
System of environmental-economic accounting (SEEA), economy-wide material flow analysis (EW-MFA), material flow indicators, physical supply and use tables (PSUT), Czech Republic

This paper aims to present the model of socio-ecological and economic system for the regions of the Central Federal district and to make calculations related to the assessment of their state, functioning, management efficiency and harmony. We apply the author's methodological toolkit that includes the formation of individual and integrated indicators of the functioning and the management efficiency of complex systems, considered as socio-ecological and economic systems. The coefficient of harmony is a measure of the equilibrium of the region's functioning, which is constructed using the author’s methodology. The paper results are as follows: The model is presented with 9 generalized performance indicators, 26 individual performance indicators and 49 factor indicators (state and impact factors) using open data from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for 2004–2015. Also the assessment of state, functioning, management efficiency and harmony of the Central Federal district are described. Included is also the analysis of the results.

Keywords
Regional economy, socio-ecological and economic systems, econometric modeling, integral indicators balance, efficiency

The aim of this paper is to offer the know-how for quantifying risk, which may reflect the restrictions faced by investors in the conditions of emerging capital markets when they start up a new company. The theoretically suitable risk measurement techniques are subject to empirical testing with finding that methods on financial basis outperform those on the market basis and that the level of risk of the respective companies is particularly dependent on the combined level of operating and financial leverage. This result allowed for the construction of a new risk-quantifying technique for investors with low capital diversification, zero entrepreneurial history and access to capital market data with low information content.

Keywords
Risk measurement, start-up business, emerging capital markets, degree of operating leverage, degree of financial leverage

The present paper is focused on non-parametric estimation of conditional density. Conditional density can be regarded as a generalization of regression thus the kernel estimator of conditional density can be derived from the kernel estimator of the regression function. We concentrate on the Priestley-Chao estimator of conditional density with a random design presented by a uniformly distributed unconditional variable. The statistical properties of such an estimator are given. As the smoothing parameters have the most significant influence on the quality of the final estimate, the leave-one-out maximum likelihood method is proposed for their detection. Its performance is compared with the cross-validation method and with two alternatives of the reference rule method. The theoretical part is complemented by a simulation study.

Keywords
Priestley-Chao estimator of conditional density, random design, uniform marginal density, bandwidth selection, maximum likelihood method, reference rule method

A significant part of research in terrorism studies focuses on the analysis of terrorist groups. An important issue for this type of research is that a large number of attacks are not attributed to a specific group. As an appropriate approach to solve the problem of attributing group responsibility we applied the geographic profiling theory. We analyzed several terrorist organizations which typically commit attacks far away from their headquarters. We proposed an innovative method based on Bayesian approach to find the organization’s base and to attribute responsibility to perpetrators of terrorist attacks. We compared the results with classical techniques used in criminology. The real data analysis shows rationale for the proposed approach. Analyzed data comes from the Global Terrorism Database which is currently the most extensive database on terrorism ever collected.

Keywords
Bayesian data analysis, geographic profiling, Global Terrorism Database, anchor point