Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 1/2015

We often meet with the analysis of household final consumption expenditure, less frequently with analyzes of household wealth. Both categories are important for the characterization of the standard of living, both are provided by the system of national accounts, but each of them is quite a different phenomenon. Household wealth comes, besides capital transfers and other changes, mainly from accumulated part of disposable income not used for current expenditure on fi nal consumption.

Keywords

Gross domestic product, savings, national wealth, assets, liabilities, households

Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO) with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.

Keywords

Age-specifi c fertility rates, ARIMA, Lee-Carter, population projection

The paper analyzes structure and behavior of unemployed people in the Czech Republic by means of latent class analysis (LCA) and CHAID analysis where the output of LCA serves as the input for CHAID. The unemployed are classified in two steps; for each step different characteristics are used. In the first step, respondents are split into latent classes according to their answers to questions concerning ways of searching for a new job. In the second step, CHAID analysis is performed with results obtained from LCA as a dependent variable. In the paper, data from periodical Labor Force Survey conducted in Czech Republic in spring 2011 are used. The results indicate that unemployed people in the Czech Republic can be divided into four segments: Active, Passive, Typical and Specific. A special attention is paid to extreme segments Active and Passive.

Keywords

Double-step classifi cation, unemployment, latent class analysis, CHAID algorithm

Some concepts of contemporary econometrics depart from the arbitrary division of variables into endogenous and exogenous. In the estimation process of the econometric model or in prediction process, it may be important to test weak or strong exogeneity of variables. In the foreign trade modelling, we oft en deal with variables between which there may be feedback. Thus, the causality of variables in the classic sense is not always obvils and it should be tested to facilitate the proper specification of foreign trade models. This article is aimed at testing the exogeneity of selected macroeconomic variables used in foreign trade models, based on Visegrad Group countries. Exogeneity tests made in this paper are based on the results of the VEC and VAR models, which enabled to explain dynamic relations between variables in foreign trade. The results of this research can be helpful for determining the structure of actual links between variables, estimation of proper models and forecasting of variable values.

Keywords

Foreign trade, exogeneity, Visegrád Group, Granger causality test, VAR model, VEC model

The users of official statistics data expect multivariate estimates at a low level of aggregation. However, due to financial restrictions it is impossible to carry out studies on a sample large enough to meet the demand for low-level aggregation of results. At the same time, respondents’ burden prevents creation of long questionnaires covering many aspects of socio-economic life. Statistical methods for data integration seem to provide a solution to such problems. These methods involve fusion of distinct data sources to be available in one set, which enables joint observation of variables from both files and estimations based on the sample size being the sum of sizes of integrated sources.

Keywords

Data fusion, data integration, multiple imputation, quality assessment, statistical matching, sample survey

The present paper deals with the estimation of population mean using predictive method of estimation utilizing auxiliary information. In this paper, we have proposed improved ratio cum product type predictive estimators to estimate the population mean. The large sample properties of the proposed estimator have been studied. The expressions for the bias and mean square error (MSE) have been obtained up to the first order of approximation. The minimum value of MSE of proposed estimator is also obtained for the optimum value of the characterizing scalar. A comparison is made with the ratio and product type estimators and the conditions under which the proposed estimator is more efficient than the other mentioned estimators. An empirici study is carried out to justify the theoretical findings.

Keywords

Predictive estimators, auxiliary information, finite population mean, MSE, efficiency

The Dutch 2011 Census tables were produced by combining existing register and sample survey data. Since the last census based on a complete enumeration was held in 1971, the willingness of the population to participace has fallen sharply. Statistics Netherlands no longer uses census questionnaires and has found an alternative in the register-based census, using only existing data. The register-based census is cheaper and more socially acceptable. The table results of the Netherlands are not only comparable with earlier Dutch censuses, but also with those of the other countries in the 2011 European Census Round.

Keywords

Census, methodology, registers, Statistics Netherlands