Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 2/2022

Statistika, 102(2): 117-137
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.38
 

Abstract
In every corner of quality of the world, the issue of pension system is being addressed. One of the most important documents that has offered its evaluation is the Mercer consulting firm and the CFA Institute, in cooperation with the Monash Center for Financial Studies. Since Slovakia is not included among the countries that evaluate these companies in their study, this paper offers the calculation of the Global Pension Index for Slovakia in the year 2020. Based on the data obtained and the grade from A to E, Slovakia is one of the countries that are rated by C+ with a total score of 65 points out of 100 as a country with a pension system “that has some good features, but also includes major risks and/or shortcomings that should be addressed. Without these improvements, its efficacy and/or long-term sustainability can be questioned.” The problems that affect the pension index of Slovakia are very low pensions for low-income groups, the level of pension assets as a percentage of GDP at the level of 14.35%, the participation in the labour rate at the level of 4.5% for the age 65 and over, and low real economic growth.

Keywords
Global pension index, adequacy, sustainability, integrity, pensions, Slovakia

 

 

Statistika, 102(2): 138-152
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.8

Abstract
The study empirically analyses the determinants of self-employment from unemployment in Slovakia in the period of economic boom. The previous employment of individuals before support is proving to be an important factor in the transition to self-employment. We believe that the importance lies in gaining a practical basis from past jobs, market orientation or establishing contacts before starting a business. Practical courses and support in the form of a tax loan would contribute to the creation of value-added business ideas that have a better chance on the labour market (because after support there is entrepreneurship only in less capital-intensive industries). The paper examines short-term and long-term perspectives using decision trees and random forests, which are exceptionally used in the study of public support. At the same time, research is enriched with practical perspectives, which significantly increases the information base of research.

Keywords
Active employment policy, contribution to self-employment, decision trees, random forests, the importance of factors, Slovakia

 

 

Statistika, 102(2): 153-167
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.46

Abstract
In this study, the effects of financial development and trade openness on economic growth were investigated using annual data for Turkey over the period 1960–2017. The financial development variable is represented as the ratio of financial system deposits to GDP. The trade openness variable is represented as the ratio of the sum of exports and imports of goods and services to GDP. To examine the long-run relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth; Fourier-based stationarity test and its complementary Fourier-based cointegration test are used. Finally, Fourier-based causality tests are also used to examine the causality relationship between the variables. As a result of cointegration tests, a long-term cointegration relationship was found between variables. According to the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis results, it is seen that there is a one-way causality relationship from financial development to economic growth and from financial development to trade openness.

Keywords
Financial development, trade openness, economic growth, unit root, cointegration, causality, Fourier

 

 

Statistika, 102(2): 168-183
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.19

Abstract
We examined the persistence of the gender earnings gap across diverged occupational groups and the workers owning diverged work status in India using the relevant information on 94 446 workers from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (2017–18). The marginal mean earning of workers is estimated using GLM: ANCOVA. The findings report the persistence of significant gender earnings gap across the occupational structure and work status of workers. The elimination of demotivating factors leading to the gender earnings gap, removal of gender discrimination, enhancing the self-esteem of females, raising productivity potential by augmenting the professional/vocational education and policies for increased female work participation is the need of the hour.

Keywords
Educational attainments, gender earnings gap, GLM: ANCOVA, occupational groups, work status

 

 

Statistika, 102(2): 184-197
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.37

Abstract
Road traffic accidents are a growing public health concern. In this study, we focused on analyzing and forecasting the monthly number of accidents, number of injuries, and number of deaths in Algeria over the period (2015–2020). For this purpose, hybrid forecasting models based on equal weights and in-sample errors were fitted, and we compared them with the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models. The three models retained for forecasting until 2022 are all hybrid models, one based on equal weight and two models based on in-sample errors (using the RMSE indicator). Furthermore, the hybrid models outperformed the SARIMA models for short (6 months), medium (12 months), and long horizon (24 months). The forecasting results showed that we expect an increase in the number of accidents, the number of deaths, and the number of injuries over the next 12 months. Policymakers must enhance strategies for prevention and road safety, especially in rural areas, where the highest rate of fatalities is recorded.

Keywords
Road traffic accidents, hybrid forecasting models, seasonal time series analysis

 

 

Statistika, 102(2): 198-204
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.9

Abstract
The price of Dogecoin has been influenced by Elon Musk’s tweets on several occasions. Moreover, there are repeating patterns in the Dogecoin prices. However, is there also a pattern to the timing of the tweets? Applying linear regression, we have been able to make the reverse analysis – to use hard financial data (prices) to analyse the human behaviour (tweets) that preceded and influenced the financial data. Selected tweets could be paired thanks to the projections of their timing on the regression line that had been created over the prices. Our model exhibits inaccuracies only in the order of the days. That is surprising, as pump schemes do not usually require such a high level of long-term deterministic timing.

Keywords
Behavioral economics, cryptocurrencies, pump-and-dump scheme, linear regression, time series analysis

 

 

Statistika, 102(2): 205-227
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.11

Abstract
A new randomized response technique for estimating the population total, or the population mean of a quantitative variable is proposed. It provides a high degree of protection to the respondents because they never report their data. Therefore, it may be favorably perceived by them and increase their willingness to cooperate. Instead of revealing the true value of the characteristic under investigation, the respondent only states whether the value is greater (or smaller) than a number which is selected by him/her at random and is unknown to the interviewer. For each respondent, this number, a sort of individual threshold, is generated as a pseudorandom number. Furthermore, two modifications of the proposed technique are presented. The first modification assumes that the interviewer also knows the generated random number. The second modification deals with the issue that, for certain variables, such as income, it may be embarrassing for the respondents to report either high or low values. Thus, depending on the value of the fixed threshold (unknown to the respondent), the respondent is asked different questions to avoid being embarrassed. The suggested approach is applied in detail to the simple random sampling without replacement, but it can be, after a straightforward modification, applied to many sampling schemes, including cluster sampling, two-stage sampling, or stratified sampling. The results of the simulations illustrate the behavior of the proposed technique.

Keywords
Survey sampling, population total, Horvitz-Thompson’s estimator, randomized response techniques, simple random sampling