The Impact of Military Spending on Sustainable Development: a Bayesian Analysis for BRICS Countries

Thi Ngoc Nga Nguyen, Ngoc Thach Nguyen, Nam Trung Nguyen, Van Diep Nguyen
Statistika, 106(1): 61–82
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2025.21

Abstract
This study provides evidence that military expenditure hinders sustainable development within the BRICS nations. Analyzing data from 2000 to 2022 using a Bayesian regression methodology for panel data, the results reveal that increased military spending negatively impacts sustainability in these emerging economies. Policymakers are urged to prioritize sustainable initiatives over expanding military spending to promote a long-term growth and stability. The effects of military spending on sustainable development vary depending on measurement metrics, such as military spending per capita or as a percentage of GDP. Additionally, it is found that international commerce and foreign direct investment (FDI) are vital for advancing sustainable development, while factors like corruption and energy consumption reduce sustainable development levels. The effect of economic growth on sustainable development remains ambiguous. The findings strongly indicate that military expenditure has a detrimental effect on the progress of BRICS countries toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Keywords
Bayesian regression, BRICS, military spending, sustainable development