Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 1/2021

This paper studies the use of statistical prognostics in predictions of short-term year-to-year evolution of GDP and other aggregate indices of the national accounts. It shows the utilisation of a non-stochastic prediction range to be used as a prediction tool that, to a certain extent, overcomes the validity of the ceteris paribus principle, on which most of the currently used stochastic approaches are based. The non-stochastic range is a resultant outcome of a wide assortment of time-series models; at the same time, a point forecast for short-term evolution is derived from the said assortment of models. We illustrate our methodology on a year-to-year evolution of GDP indices in France as a time series with a sufficiently large number of observations.

Keywords
Statistical prognostics, non-stochastic point forecast, non-stochastic prediction range, GDP

The aim of the article was to assess selected methods of linear ordering of objects and choosing the optimal method. The measures based on different properties of the synthetic variable were selected for evaluation. The selection of the optimal linear ordering procedure is the last step in creating a synthetic variable and is often not included in the research. The analysis was based on data from the EUROSTAT database (2017) countries. The level of socio-economic development in the context of sustainable development for 28 European Union was adopted as the ordering countries. The paper proposes a comparison of results in various methods, e.g. due to the way of normalization of diagnostic features or type of methods (based on a pattern object or a non-pattern object). Out of all the selection methods for this study, the TOPSIS methods based on zero unitarization proved to be the optimal.

Keywords
Linear ordering of objects, selection of method of linear ordering, level of socio-economic development, sustainable development

This paper examines the carbon dioxide (CO₂) Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis of a balanced panel of 50 middle-income countries over the period 1996–2013 using a dynamic spatial panel data model with country and time-period fixed effects. Using a Bayesian comparison approach, we systematically searched for the most suitable spatial weights matrix describing the spatial arrangement of the countries in the sample. We found substantial spatial dependence effect in CO₂ emissions across the sample of middle-income countries, highlighting the influence these countries exert on their neighbors. Besides, the empirical results showed that the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions shaped as an inverted-U trajectory. Furthermore, it has been found that trade openness and energy intensity are the main factors on slightly increasing CO₂ emissions, while the urbanization contributes to relative decrease in CO₂ emissions.

Keywords
CO₂ emission, EKC hypothesis, dynamic spatial panel, Bayesian comparison, spillover effects

The equal opportunity theory is based on the idea that it is important to distinguish between two sources of inequality: the inequality caused by factors outside an individual's control (inequality of opportunity) and the inequality generated by factors within an individual’s control (inequality of effort). The aim of this study is to assess the impact of choosing an inequality index on the results of measuring the inequality of opportunity. The empirical analysis was carried out based on the data from Life in Transition III sociological survey. Important findings suggest that: 1) the choice of inequality measure has a significant impact on the outcome of measuring the inequality of opportunity; 2) within the methodology under consideration, when using the Gini index, the contribution of inequality of opportunity to the inequality in labor income turns out to be much greater than when using other measures of inequality with the direct method of assessment, and vice versa, noticeably less with the indirect method of assessment; 3) the L-Theil and T-Theil indices look more preferable to use; 4) a country's ranking in terms of absolute and relative inequality of opportunities changes depending on the choice of the measure of inequality and on the choice of the assessment method, sometimes quite significantly; 5) the ranking position for absolute inequality of opportunity may differ significantly from the ranking position for relative inequality.

Keywords
Inequality, inequality of opportunity, inequality indices

The demand elasticity for a product is the basis of its price determination. The ratio in which a product demand will fall with the rise in its price and, vice versa, can be known as demand elasticity. With increasing population and increasing demand for meat, it is important to accurately estimate price and income demand elasticities. This paper used almost ideal demand systems (AIDS) with log linear analogue of the Paasche price index, referred to as the corrected Stone index to model consumer demand system. The study employs the Kalman filter estimation strategy, which is based on state-space models that are applied to linear regressions with stochastically time-varying parameters, to determine the evolution of price and income elasticities of red meat and fish demand for monthly data 1997–2017. Variables stationary is tested with Hegy test. Results show that Price elasticity for fish is elastic. Elasticity results indicate that the two products are strong substitutes. Income elasticity indicated that fish considered to be luxury good.

Keywords
AIDS model, fish, red meat, Kalman Filter

The goal of the present study is to contribute to the improvement of cooperation between countries in global efforts to eliminate illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP), by identifying common gaps and potential solutions using modern statistical instruments. For each of the 30 European reference countries, the first objective of this paper is to identify models of ITTP modus operandi. Empirical and individual observations suggest that such models exist, but no rigorous statistical evidence is available. The second objective of this paper is to assess the similarities and differences between various components of governance in countries for each ITTP model identified. The paper demonstrates that countries sharing common patterns of modus operandi in ITTP, also share common strengths and weaknesses in their governance status. Reinforcing governance with shared instruments and common goals across countries sharing common ITTP modus operandi, can potentially improve the control of illicit trade in these products. The current study presents evidence for the need to tailor cooperation between countries and the significant role of non-fiscal measures in fighting ITTP.

Keywords
Illicit tobacco trade, European Union countries, cluster analysis