Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 3/2023

Statistika, 103(3): 262–276
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2023.14
 
Abstract
Based on empirical data, this paper attempts modelling, in general terms, the relationship between money supply and inflation, i.e., the relationship between the inflation rate and monetary aggregates. Our basic idea is to estimate time-shift parameters and, subsequently, a leading indicator that would provide information on whether and with what delay changes in the money supply will be reflected in the price level evolution. The aim of the paper is to formulate and, on the basis of the data, to confirm or refute the hypothesis that changes in the value of monetary aggregates imply changes in the inflation rate and, therefore, whether or not monetary aggregates are certain indicators signalling further evolution of the inflation rate. Monthly data for the Czech Republic from the years 2002–2022 have been used to model and test our hypotheses. The analysis has failed to show a statistically significant relationship between the individual monetary aggregates  and the inflation rate.

Keywords
Consumer price index, monetary aggregates, time lag, regression dynamic model, estimation of dependence intensity at a given lag

Statistika, 103(3): 277–294
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2023.31
 
Abstract
Trends of the economic relations between Czechia and Hungary – from Hungarian point of view – are reviewed, based mainly on the data of statistics office (KSH) and on the National Bank of Hungary (MNB). Developments are examined in EUR throughout the study, thus evaluation is exempt from HUF exchange rate changes. The first part presents, based on KSH data, the external trade turnover changes between Hungary and Czechia in 1994–2022. Czechia is an important trade partner of Hungary. Timely changes in product structure are emphasized, the most recent state is presented, based on SITC and BEC nomenclature. Car industry turnover size and structure is presented. The role of Czechia in the external trade of services is significantly smaller than in that of goods, but trade increases faster in this field. The second part compares, based on MNB data, the size and divisional structure of the outstanding capital stock, showing that Czech enterprises in Hungary are more productive than the average foreign subsidiary.

Keywords
External trade in goods, product structure of foreign trade, external trade in services, foreign-controlled affiliates, FDI

Statistika, 103(3): 295–309
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2023.10
 
Abstract
The growth theorists argue that human capital development/accumulation (HCD/A) is vital for economic growth. However, the level of external debt accumulation determines HCA and its effect on economic growth. Besides, the impact of external debt on growth is still debatable. Further, the external debt-growth relationship could be non-linear instead of linear, and external debt can affect growth through the HCD channel. Therefore, this study aims to look at the impact of foreign debt on HCD and growth in heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) employing seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and other alternative simultaneous equations models (SEMs) from 1990–2017. The result indicates the link between foreign debt and HCD is negative and non-linear, but only non-linearity is observed between foreign debt and growth. Besides, external debt affects HIPCs growth through the HCD channel. Therefore, the study recommends essentializing solid macroeconomic policies, strengthening institutional performance, appropriate debt management strategies, and investing borrowed funds in productive projects.

Keywords
External debt, HCD, economic growth, HIPCs

Statistika, 103(3): 310–323
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2023.27
 
Abstract
Tourism demand modelling is one of the most studied areas in tourism economics, particularly focused on time series  and econometric research. In this study, directly interpretable one-equation techniques are utilised, i.e. the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) and the derived error correction model (ECM). To complement the sharing of information and habits in tourism, we apply regressors derived from wages, general prices, and dummies. For the Czech and Austrian data, short- as well as long-run sets of outputs act differently, regarding the specific situation. Such information can straightforwardly be applied to the effective planning of various activities covering the public and private sectors. The results are completed by the standard cointegration testing procedure and residual analysis.

Keywords
Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, Error Correction Model, cointegration, multipliers, tourism

The aim of the paper is to compare the performance of economic researchers in Austria, Romania and the Visegrad 4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) using performance indicators of researchers from the Scopus and SciVal databases. In the comparison of countries, Austria is included as a benchmark country, while the other five countries represent the countries of the former Eastern bloc. In the study, the definition of an economic researcher is based on indicators that can be obtained from databases.
Paper pursued two goals. First, by presenting the relationships between the data obtained from the Scopus/SciVal databases, to present the most important key indicators, then to group the researchers with the help of the analyzed indicators, and to compare the publication performance of the chosen countries. A researcher is considered to be an economic researcher in the study whose at least thirty percent of the published articles in the SCImago database are in the subject areas of Business, Management, and Accounting and Economics, Econometrics, and Finance.

Keywords
Science metrics, economics, management, multivariate statistics

Statistika, 103(3): 342–354
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2023.4
 
Abstract
The achievement of profits when trading on the stock markets is conditioned by a quality analytical forecast of the development of stock prices in the coming period.
This research attempts to compare the results of the ARIMA model and the ARIMA-GARCH model to forecast the development of stock prices on a sample of selected stocks from the Czech, German, Austrian, Polish and British markets. The 4 most liquid titles from each of the above-mentioned markets were selected for the sample of analyzed stocks. Available daily closing stock price data, mostly from the period 2000–2022, were used for the analysis.
Research has shown that for most of the analyzed titles, it is more appropriate to use the ARIMA-GARCH model, which better captures variability for this data than just the ARIMA model. The quality of the selected model is evaluated by autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity tests, and Theil´s inequality coefficient.

Keywords
ARIMA, GARCH, stock price prediction, time series

Statistika, 103(3): 355–373
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2023.21
 
Abstract
Digitalization and technological advances develop together with our society. The European Commission intends to monitor this development using the International Digital and Society Index (I-DESI) and provide an objective comparison of the participating countries. This comparison of the counties can be an important part of the roadmap of digital transformation for companies and other participants in the market. The aim of this study is to further analyze the 2020 data of I-DESI using multivariate statistical methods not included in the official report. Our objective is to show whether there are differences between the EU and non-EU countries (discriminant analysis, variance analysis), whether the dimensions of the I-DESI index are overlapping (correlation analysis, factor analysis), and whether different country groups can be formed (cluster analysis). Answering these questions, we can give a useful tool to companies for a more successful digital transformation.

Keywords
International Digital Economy and Society Index (I-DESI), digital transformation, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), analytics, Multivariate Statistical Analysis

Statistika, 103(3): 374–383
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2023.6
 
Abstract
Acceptance sampling, one of the techniques used in quality control, is analysed in present paper. We shall study sampling inspection plans when the remainder of a rejected lot is inspected, i.e. rectifying plans. These plans were introduced by Dodge and Romig for inspection by attributes (each inspected item is classified as either good or defective). Analogous rectifying plans for inspection by variables with one specification limit for the quality characteristic were introduced by the author of this contribution. In present article we shall consider combined inspection (all items from the sample are inspected by variables, but remainder of a rejected lot is inspected only by attributes). We shall show that the combined inspection is the best in many situations. Using plans for combined inspection we can often achieve significant savings of the inspection cost under the same protection of producer and consumer.

Keywords
Acceptance sampling, rectifying LTPD and AOQL plans, inspection by attributes, inspection by variables, cost of inspection