Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 2/2016

Volume indices are connected with statistical deflation that means recalculation of macro-aggregates to constant prices. Price calculations have to follow changes in definition or delineation of macro-aggregates. New standards of National Accounts (SNA 2008, ESA 2010 respectively) bring many changes that should be taken into account in volume measures. The aim of this paper is to present new methods of deflation that respekt updated definitions and principles. Concept of foreign trade has been changed significantly as globalization is going faster and faster. Re-export and merchanting have become more important especially in small open economies such as the Czech Republic. This phenomenon should be reflected in constant prices calculations. Changes in methodology have also affected volume indices.

Keywords
National accounts, ESA 2010, revision, research and development, foreign trade

The aim of this article is to provide the very first analysis in the field of dynamic Input-Output (I-O) models for the Czech Republic. This study examines the practicality of production dynamic equations for an estimation of future production enhanced for gross fixed capital formation. The principal construction element of dynamic I-O models rests on a technical capital matrix illustrating a stock of gross fixed capital in an economy. The lack of available data for this matrix challenges this study to analyze two possible computation procedures. Namely, I examine extrapolation method and method based on a transformation from matrix classification by type of fixed assets (AN) to classification by product (CPA). The results of the application part indicate notable differences between both ways of calculation. Final prognosis of the structure of production exhibits 11 to 21% deviations from the real structure of production in the five-year period and thus significantly diverges from reality. Potential sources of these problems and their solutions are discussed in the conclusion of this study.

Keywords
Dynamic Input-Output model, Input-Output analysis, matrix of technical capital, production equation

The paper deals with macroeconomic estimates of the impact of population ageing. It shows that the optimal choice of pension system is not a crucial issue. The main emphasis should be put on demographic and economic parameters influencing significantly the share of retirement pensions in our society. Presented approach is based on so-called pension schemes expressing discounted pension entitlements to 2014. It shows the liabilities to current and future pensioners for both men and women aged over 20 years. We present this model in three variants and illustrate its sensitivity to input parameters. This approach allows us to estimate the share of pension liabilities in gross domestic product that accounts for about 230% according to generally recommended approach. Pension entitlements represent a modern topic to be implemented in 2017 in national accounts. Pros and cons of this modern approach are discussed within our paper.

Keywords
Ageing of population, national accounts, pension liabilities, pension schemes

The aim of this paper is to discuss pros and cons of the current ways how the role of government in the society is analysed. In our analysis, macroeconomic aggregates provided by the satellite accounts of the public sector are used as an alternative analytical tool. This data supposedly better reflects the existing range of government activities as all government controlled entities are covered. Relevant time series by the Czech Statistical Office were prolonged making the analysis of long-term trends in the public sector size possible. The results are discussed against the theoretical background of the public choice theory. It was found out that there was an obvious bias to the deficit-driven provision of the public goods reflected concurrently in the growing indebtedness. On the other hand, the share of total revenues and expenditures remains rather stable over time.

Keywords
Public sector, government, national accounts, public choice

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used as a basic measure of inflation. In practice, the Laspeyres price index is used to measure the CPI, although this formula does not take into account changes in the structure of consumption. The difference between the Laspeyres index and the superlative index should approximate the value of the commodity substitution bias. The Lloyd–Moulton price index does not make use of currentperiod expenditure data and, as it is commonly known, it allows to approximate superlative indices, in particular the Fisher price index (Von der Lippe, 2007). This is a very important property for the inflation measurement and the Consumer Price Index bias calculations. In this paper we verify the utility of the Lloyd–Moulton price index as the Fisher price index approximation. We propose a simple modification of that index and verify this modification for the real data set.

Keywords
Price indices, Fisher index, Lloyd–Moulton index, Consumer Price Index

In Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal No. 4/2015 (pp. 39–58), author’s paper Segmented Regression Based on B-splines with Solved Examples was published. Use of B-spline basis functions has many advantages, the most important being a special form of matrix of system of normal equations suitable for quick solution of this system. The subject of this paper is to explain how that segmented regression can be mathematically developer in other way, which doesn’t require the knowledge of relatively complicated theory of B-spline basis functions, but is based on simpler apparatus of cut-off polynomials. The author considers a detailed calculation of matrix of system of normal equations elements and elaboration of so called polygonal method, as his contribution to issues of segmented regression. This method can be used to automatically obtain required values of nodal points. Author pays major attention to computing elements of matrix of systém of normal equations, which he also developed as computer program called TRIO.

Keywords
Normal equations, polygonal method, cut-off polynomials, linear, quadratic and cubic segmented regression, transformation of the parametric variable