Business cycle survey - January 2021

The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) – in the basis index form - decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 87.3, m-o-m. Both parts of the indicator decrease. Business confidence indicator growths by 0.7 percentage points to 87.1 (m-o-m), and consumer confidence indicator increases by 3.5 percentage points to 88.5. Economic sentiment indicator, business confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator have significantly lower values, y-o-y.

In industry, business confidence slightly decreased, m-o-m. The confidence indicator falls down by 0.3 points to 93.2. The share of industrial enterprises evaluating their current total demand as insufficient increases in the comparison with December. The stock of finished products decreases slightly. The share of entrepreneurs expecting the growth rate of production activity for the next three months is the same. The main barrier to production growth is insufficient demand, which was mentioned by approximately 36% of respondents. The share of respondents which mentioned the lack of materials and equipment significantly increases. At the end, the industry is only branch where the confidence is higher, y-o-y.

The utilization of production capacities of enterprises in the manufacturing industry reached 86% - It is higher value according to previous quarter of the year. Respondents estimate they have work secured by contracts for 12 months.

Confidence of entrepreneurs in the construction decreases m-o-m. The confidence indicator increases by 2.4 points to 108.5. The share of entrepreneurs evaluating their current demand for construction work as insufficient increase compared to December. Entrepreneurs in the construction industry estimate that the current number of employees increases in the next three months. As in the previous quarters, the main barriers to output growth remain staff shortages (around 32% of respondents) and insufficient demand (around 25% of respondents). Compared to January 2020, confidence in the construction industry is significantly lower.

Confidence in the trade sector decreases. The confidence indicator declines by 3.1 points to 90.4, m-o-m. The share of entrepreneurs evaluating the overall economic situation as well did not change. Expectations concerning the economic situation for the next three months are lower in January. The stock of goods increases. Confidence in trade is significantly lower, y-o-y.

In selected service sector (including the banking sector), confidence indicator slightly decreases. The confidence indicator increases by 0.7 points to 78.1. The assessment of the current economic situation gets worse in the comparison to December. The share of respondents negatively evaluating the current total demand increases, m-o-m. The share of respondents - which decreases the number of employees - significantly increases. On the other hand, the share of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in demand in the next three months increases. The main barrier to production growth is insufficient demand, which was mentioned by approximately 30% of respondents (28% respondents say that the barriers are connecting with the restrictions connecting with the COVID-19). Confidence in selected services is significantly lower, y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreases, m-o-m. The confidence indicator rises by 3.5 points to 88.5. Consumers worries about the worsening overall economic situation increases in January. Consumers' concerns about their financial situation are still same as in December. The intention to save has decreased. The number of consumers worried about rising unemployment in the next twelve months increased again, m-o-m. Concerns about rising prices increases, too. Compared to the same month last year, consumer confidence is significantly lower.
 

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In January 2021, we change the base to calculate the basis index in a news release by the Czech Statistical Office. For 2021, we calculate the long-term average from 2003 to 2020. The long-term average is changed one a year in news release publication data in January.

Data for the business and consumer part of the business cycle surveys were collected from 1^st to 18^th January 2021.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420731439291,  e-mail: juraj.lojka@csu.gov.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420604815440, e-mail: jiri.obst@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, Data Collect consumer survey (https://www.datacollect.cz)
End of data collection: January 18, 2021
Next News Release: February 24, 2021
This press release wasn´t edited for language.