National Accounts - 4th quarter of 2012

The gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal, and calendar effects decreased according to the refined estimate by 1.2% compared to 2011; the decrease was gradually deepening during the year.

In 2012, according to the refined estimate, the gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price effects and seasonally adjusted ^*/ decreased by 1.2%. The preliminary estimate for the Q4 published on 14 February (drop by 1.7%, y-o-y, and 0.2% compared to the Q3) remained unchanged. For the GDP development from the Q1 to Q4 2012 see the table below.

Gross domestic product, constant prices, y-o-y and q-o-q changes in 2012 (%)



The GDP was decreasing in all quarters of 2012 both in the y-o-y and q-o-q comparison; the economic recession was gradually slightly deepening during the year. Following are the main causes of the unfavourable development: decreasing domestic demand of households for goods and services for final consumption as well as demand of investors for fixed capital. The external trade was not able to compensate the domestic demand development any more despite the increasing active balance.
The domestic economy generated the GDP amounting to CZK 3 844 bn. at current prices, which was only by 0.1% more than in 2011.
The GDP deflator expressing the change of the overall price level increased by 1.3%, y-o-y.
Total employment in terms of national accounts (which includes employees and self-employed persons) increased in average by 0.4% (compared to the previous year) to 5 092 thousand persons. There are by 21 thousand more self-employed persons – in total it is 956 thousand; the average number of employees (4 136 thousand) has almost unchanged. Nevertheless, in total there were by 1.2% fewer hours worked.

Development of the demand

The decrease of the domestic demand was contributed to mainly by household expenditure, which for the entire year at constant prices dropped by 3.5%, y-o-y. However, households spent less than a year before even at current prices (-1.3%). There was a lower interest of consumers despite a relatively favourable development of the deflator, which was gradually decreasing in the year-on-year comparison from 2.7% in the Q1 to 1.7% in the Q4 of 2012. In 2012, the interest dropped mainly in consumer durables (passenger cars, furniture); however, what also decreased were the expenditure on food, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages, routine maintenance of dwellings, insurance, and other goods and services.

Gross fixed capital formation in 2012 was by 1.6% lower, y-o-y, especially due to the negative development in the second half-year when investments in transport equipment and buildings largely decreased, although prices of those commodities decreased below the level of the preceding year.

External trade was the only component of the demand, which influenced the GDP development positively during the entire year 2012. Exports of goods increased by 4.2%, y-o-y, for the entire year 2012 (the imports grew by 1.2%), which at least partially compensated the decrease of the domestic demand. In the Q4, however, that pro-growth source was almost exhausted as a result of the drop in foreign demand. The terms of trade were negative during the entire year; import prices increased in average by 0.7 p.p., y-o-y, more than export prices.

Development of the supply

Individual industries made differentiated contribution to the gross value added formation. Another marked drop was recorded last year by construction (-6.3%, y-o-y), for which it was difficult to cope with the lack of orders from both the private and public sector. On the contrary, agriculture faced complex climate conditions that negatively influenced the gross value added formation at constant prices. The most important industry as for the volume – manufacturing – reached for the entire year similar results as the year before. What was highly differentiated, however, was the development in individual quarters. While in the Q1 manufacturing generated by 3.4% higher value added, in the Q4 of 2012 it fell by the same figure behind the results for the Q4 of 2011. Mainly slackening of production of transport equipment in the second half-year and drop of external demand were reflected there. From the more important as for their volume, also production of food recorded results under the average when compared to the previous year.

Taxes on products dropped in total by 2.1% at constant prices, y-o-y, mainly due to the development of their most important component as for its volume – the value added tax. On the contrary, markedly positive was in the Q4 of 2012 the development of the excise tax on tobacco products income, where considerable pre-stocking of producers related to this year's change of the tax rate was reflected.
The Czech Statistical Office informs that on 30 April it will publish results of the ongoing works on compilation of the refined versions of the annual national accounts for 2010 and 2011, which are being processed using the relevant annual statistical surveys in combination with administrative data sources. On the same day, also corresponding quarterly national accounts time series will be published.
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^*/ Unless otherwise stated, all data presented in this news release are adjusted for price, seasonal, and calendar effects.


Contact person: Jan Heller, Director of the Quarterly National Accounts Department, phone number (+420) 274 052 865 , e-mail: jan.heller@csu.gov.cz
Used data sources updated as at: 6 March 2013
Related CZSO web page: /produkty/hdp_ts
Next News Release will be published on: 15 May 2013 (GDP preliminary estimate for the first quarter of 2013)