Harvest forecast - September 2007

Based on a survey made on 15 September 2007, the Czech Statistical Office is expecting the production of 7 046 thousand tonnes of cereals in total and 1 038 thousand tonnes of rape. In comparison to 2006, these figures are higher by 10.6% and 18.0% respectively. Production of potatoes should be higher too. The expected potato harvest in total is 785 thousand tonnes, i.e. annual increase by 13.4%. The production of 2 599 thousand tonnes of sugar beet is expected, i.e. annual decrease by 17.2%.
The forecasted production of 7 046 thousand tonnes of cereals in total is by 675 thousand tonnes higher than last year. The average yield of cereals should be 4.55 t/ha, in comparison to 4.20 t/ha in 2006 (-8.3%). This year’s first forecast of grain maize production amounting to 608 thousand tonnes is by 2 thousand tonnes (0.3%) higher than last year, the expected yield is 6.53 t/ha (-3.3%).

The expected production of 785 thousand tonnes of potatoes in total is 13.4% above that in 2006. This increase is attributable to larger area under potatoes by 1 885 ha (6.3%) and higher yield reaching 24.59 t/ha (+6.7%). The production of 2 599 thousand tonnes of sugar beet is expected, i.e. annual decrease by 540 thousand tonnes (-17.2%). The yield should be 47.88 t/ha, i.e. annual decrease by 3.60 t/ha.

The rape yield of 3.08 t/ha (3.01 t/ha in 2006) and larger area under rape by 45 thousand ha had a favourable impact on the expected rape harvest which should reach 1 038 thousand tonnes, i.e. annual increase by 158 thousand tonnes (18.0%). While the area under poppy decreased by 1.5%, the expected production of 34 thousand tonnes is by 2 thousand tonnes higher in comparison to 2006. The reason is a yield increase of 7.3%; the yield should reach 0.59 t/ha.

The first forecast in this year was made for sunflower for seed. The expected production is 52 thousand tonnes (101 thousand tonnes in 2006) and expected yield 2.12 t/ha (2.15 t/ha in 2006), which gives a production fall of 49 thousand tonnes (-48.6%). This fall is due to a sharp decrease in the area sown of sunflower for seed to 24 thousand ha, i.e. to 51.9% of last year’s area. Also expected yield 2.12 t/ha is lower by 0.03 t/ha (-1.4%).

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Note
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, tel. (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in farming businesses
End of data collection: 17 September 2007
End of data processing: 5 October 2007
Related tables: Harvest forecast – September 2007
Update procedure: The next yield and production forecast for selected crops as at 15 October 2007 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 November 2007.