Harvest forecast - September 2006

As at 15 September 2006, the Czech Statistical Office estimates that 6 476 thousand tonnes of cereals total should be harvested. Compared to 2005, this figure is by 15.3% lower. Even a higher fall is expected for potatoes where the estimated production of 668 thousand tonnes is down by 34,1 %.
The estimated production of cereals total amounting to 6 476 thousand tonnes is by 1 171 thousand tonnes lower than in 2005. The average yield is estimated at 4.27 t/ha, as against 5.04 t/ha in 2005 (which was by 15.3% more). The extreme ups and downs of the weather – hot and dry July, cold August – caused that yields per hectare of not only cereals, but also of all other estimated products, except rape, will be below the 2005 level.

In comparison to 2005 production, this year’s first estimate of 589 thousand tonnes for grain maize is lower by 114 thousand tonnes, i.e. by 16.3%, when a yield of 6.93 t/ha (down by 3.3%) is expected.

The expected production of potatoes total, 668 thousand tonnes, is by 34.1% lower than production in 2005. The lower forecast for potatoes is affected by decreases in both sown area by 6 045 ha and yield per hectare to 22.25 tonnes. Lower yield per hectare accounts for 50.8% of the decrease in production. In comparison to the years since 1993, the yield estimated for 2006 can be labelled as ‘average’, the lowest (16.06 t/ha) was in 1994 and the record-breaking (28.08 t/ha) in 2005.

Production of sugar beet is expected at 2 958 thousand tonnes, i.e. by 538 thousand tonnes (-15.4%) less than in 2005 with yield 48.52 t/ha (yield 53.31 t/ha in 2005 was extremely high).

The yield of 3.02 t/ha (2.88 t/ha in 2005), together with larger sown area by 25 thousand hectares, favourably affected the expected rape production, which is estimated at 883 thousand tonnes, i.e. by 113 thousand tonnes (+14.7%) more than production in 2005. Sowing areas of poppy were substantially extended in this year - by 29,5 %, but fall of the yield of this crop was extraordinary - by 0,22 t/ha (- 26,8 %) and it caused that expected production would be at the level of 34 thous. t, by1,9 thous. t under final production of 2005.

Production of green and grain maize should reach 6 341 thousand tonnes, i.e. down by 529 thousand tonnes on 2005. Yield per hectare is expected at 33.27 tonnes, it is down by 2.42 t/ha (-6.8%) .

More detailed information – including regional data – is shown in the related tables Harvest forecast – September 2006.

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Note
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 15 September 2006
End of data processing: 5 October 2006
Related tables: Harvest forecast – September 2006, also at /katalog-produktu )
Update procedure: Next forecast of the yields and production of selected agricultural crops referring to 15 October 2006 will be published by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 November 2006.