Harvest forecast - June 2008

Based on this year’s first forecast made on 20 June 2008, the CZSO is expecting the harvest of 6 879 thousand tonnes of main cereals in total and 1 111 thousand tonnes of rape. In comparison to 2007 production, main cereals should be up by 505 thousand tonnes (+7.9%) and rape by 79 thousand tonnes up (+7.6%).

The expected crop of main cereals in total of 6 879 thousand tonnes is by 505 thousand tonnes higher (+7.9%) compared to 2007 production. This year the reason for good forecast is specifically an expected higher yield per hectare – 4.79 t/ha (i.e. up by 9.4% on 2007). The area under main cereals is smaller by 21 thousand hectares (-1.5%) to reach 1 435 hectares.

For two most spread cereals in the Czech Republic, wheat (this year taking 55.9% of the area under main cereals) and barley (this year taking 33.6% of the area under main cereals), the area under winter cereals increased, like in 2007 (area under winter wheat by 1.4% and under winter barley by 9.0%) while the area under spring cereals decreased (area under spring wheat –31.1%, area under spring barley –7.6%).

Winter wheat, triticale and especially all kinds of spring cereals are in better condition due to mild wither and enough water in spring months compared to 2007. Winter wheat is expected to produce 3 696 tonnes (i.e. +5.5%) and expected yield is 5.22 tonnes (+4.2%). Winter barley should produce 639 tonnes (+2.6%) and expected yield is 4.53 tonnes (-5.8%). Compared to 2007, a marked increase of yields per hectare is expected for spring wheat (+38.8 to 4.04 t/ha) and spring barley (+27.3% to 4.38 t/ha). However, total harvest of spring wheat is expected to reach 169 thousand tonnes (-4.5%) due to smaller sown area. In contrast, harvest of spring barley is expected to reach 1 496 thousand tonnes (+17.8%) compared to 2007.
The second cereal expected to produce lower yield per hectare compared to 2007 is rye (this year’s yield 4.44 t/ha compared to 4.73 t/ha in 2007). An increase of its sawn area to 43 thousand hectares (+15.7%) in 2008 should produce 193 thousand tonnes (+ 8.7% on 2007). For oats, the situation is just opposite. Harvest of 166 thousand tonnes (+3.9% up on 2007) is expected on smaller sown area (-16.9%) with higher yield per hectare, i.e. 3.38 tonnes (2.70 tonnes in 2007). Triticale whose sown area increased in the last three years (this year 58 thousand hectares and 4.28 t/ha) is expected to produce 247 thousand tonnes (+ 20.2% on 2007).

Rape, whose sown area is increased on yearly basis (continuously from 2003), is expected to produce on 357 hectares and with the yield 3.11 t/ha (in 2007 3.06 t/ha) 1 111 thousand tonnes (+ 7.6% on 2007).

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Note
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, tel. (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 20 June 2008
End of data processing: 10 July 2008
Related tables: Harvest forecast – June 2008 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the yields and harvest of selected fruits and early potatoes - also at /produkty/harvest-forecast-july-8gojhl9sux
Update procedure: Next forecast of the yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 July 2008 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 August 2008.