Harvest forecast - June 2007

Based on this year’s first forecast made on 20 June 2007, the CZSO is expecting the harvest of 6 102 thousand tonnes of main cereals in total and 983 thousand tonnes of rape. In comparison to 2006 production, main cereals should be up by 337 thousand tonnes (+5.8%) and rape by 103 thousand tonnes up (+11.7%).
The expected crop of main cereals in total of 6 102 thousand tonnes is by 337 thousand tonnes higher (+5.8%) compared to 2006 production. The reasons for the increase are a slightly larger sown area (+1.8%) as well as a higher average yield (from 4.03 t/ha in 2006 to expected 4.19 t/ha in 2007). The forecasted rape crop of 983 thousand tonnes is higher due to a larger sown area (+15.5%) while average yield is supposed to be lower (2.91 t/ha, i.e. down by 3.3% on 2006).

The most spread cereal in the Czech Republic, winter wheat (this year taking 51.5% of the area under main cereals), should produce around 3 602 tonnes, i.e. up by 304 thousand tonnes (+9.2%) on 2006; its sown area is larger (+4.2%) and expected yield 4.80 t/ha (+4.8%). The harvest of the second most grown cereal, spring barley (25.4% of the area under main cereals), is expected down by 303 thousand tonnes (-20.0%), due to a smaller sown area by 56 thousand hectares (-13.3%) and a lower average yield (-7.6%) reaching 3.28 t/ha.

Among main cereals, the most significant changes are expected for rye. Its sown area is by 66.8% larger, and as the yield should be 4.04 t/ha (+21.3%), the harvest of 152 thousand tonnes (+102.8%) is expected. It should be noted, however, that the harvest of rye between the years 2005 and 2006 plummeted by 62.0% and this year’s production will not reach the 2005 level (197 thousand tonnes). Similarly, the expected production of triticale (200 thousand tonnes) will be lower than in 2005 (255 thousand tonnes), in spite of a larger sown area by 22.0% and expected higher average yield by 25.0% in comparison to 2006.

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Note
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, tel. (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 20 June 2007
End of data processing: 10 July 2007
Related tables: Harvest forecast – June 2007 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the yields and harvest of selected fruits and early potatoes - also at /katalog-produktu )
Update procedure: Next forecast of the yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 July 2007 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 August 2007.