Harvest forecast - June 2006

Based on this year’s first forecast made on 20 June 2006, the CZSO is expecting that 6 306 thousand tonnes of main cereals total and 854 thousand tonnes of rape should be harvested. Compared to the results of 2005, main cereals will be by 638 thousand tonnes down (-9.2%) and rape by 84 thousand tonnes up (+11.0%).
The crop estimate of main cereals total of 6 306 thousand tonnes is by 638 thousand lower (-9.2%). The reasons for the lower estimate of main cereals are a smaller sown area (-74 486 ha year-on-year) as well as a lower yield per hectare (4.41 t/ha, compared to 4.61 t/ha in 2005). The year-on-year fall in the total crop of main cereals is attributable to different yield per hectare (causing 46.1% of the fall) and to different sown area (53.9%). The higher rape crop estimate of 854 thousand tonnes is due to a higher expected yield per hectare (2.92 t/ha, compared to 2.88 t/ha in 2005). Also area under rape is larger by 25 087 ha (+9.4%).

By kind of main cereals, the expected crop decrease is mainly affected by winter wheat – down by 393.3 thousand tonnes (-10.0%), winter barley – down by 128.2 thousand tonnes (-23.3%), rye – down by 105.2 thousand tonnes (-53.5%), and triticale – down by 97.5 thousand tonnes (-38.2%). Higher 2006 harvest is expected for spring wheat – up by 53.2 thousand tonnes (+24.9%), spring barley – up by 1.2 thousand tonnes (+0.1%), and oats – up by 32.2 thousand tonnes (+21.3%). The higher estimated crop of spring cereals results from an increase in sown area (spring cereals substituted bad winter cereals) and from expected higher yield per hectare of spring wheat.

As data released by Eurostat in the series Statistics in focus “2006 Harvest in EU-25 – Early estimates” say, the crop of cereals according to the AGROMET system (model of early estimates) in the EU-25 should reach 262 148 thousand tonnes in 2006. In comparison to 2005, when 259 229 thousand tonnes were harvested, it is a 1.1% increase. Cereals are estimated to be grown on 51 175 thousand ha in 2006 (-0.9% year-on-year), and the yield should reach 5.03 t/ha (+1.6%).

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Note
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 20 June 2006
End of data processing: 10 July 2006
Related tables: Harvest forecast – June 2006 (contains more detailed information concerning estimates of the yields and harvest of selected fruits and early potatoes
Update procedure: Next forecast of the yields and production of selected agricultural crops as at 15 July 2006 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 7 August 2006.