Harvest forecast - July 2006

Based on this year’s second estimate of yields per hectare referring to 15 July, the CZSO is expecting that 6 274 thousand tonnes of main cereals should be harvested. This is down by 32 thousand tonnes (-0.5%) against the previous month’s estimate and down by 9.6% when compared to the harvest of 2005. Crop estimate of rape dropped by 3.4% against June and reached 825 thousand tonnes.
The crop estimate of main cereals of 6 274 thousand tonnes is by 670 thousand (-9.6%) lower than the 2005 harvest. The reasons for the lower estimate of main cereals are a decrease in sown areas from 1 505 thousand ha to 1 431 thousand ha (51.3% of expected harvest drop) on the one hand, and a fall in yield per hectare from 4.61 tonnes in 2005 to expected 4.38 tonnes (48.7%) on the other hand. The estimated decrease in yield per hectare was mainly due to the long spell of hot and dry weather.

The production of wheat in total is expected at 3 714 thousand tonnes, of which winter wheat (the most spread cereal in the Czech Republic) should reach 3 472 thousand tonnes, i.e. by 11.7% less than the 2005 harvest. The crop of barley should also be lower y-o-y (-3.0%). The harvest of spring barley -- the second most spread cereal - is expected to be 1 717 thousand tonnes (+4.3% on 2005). This increase is due to larger sown areas by 7.3% than in 2005, because spring barley was often applied as a substitution for winter cereals killed by frost or water. An exceptional fall (-55.8% y-o-y) is expected in rye, the harvest is estimated at a mere 87 thousand tonnes, mainly due to a decrease in sown areas (-52.1% y-o-y).

The harvest of rape, under expected yield per hectare of 2.82 tonnes (2.88 tonnes in 2005), should be 825 thousand tonnes (+7.2% on 2005).

The harvest of poppy should reach 44 thousand tonnes, i.e. by 20.7% more y-o-y, under yield per hectare 0.76 t (-7.3% y-o-y). The reason for the significant increase in poppy production is a substantial increase in sown areas (+29.5%, i.e. 13 thousand ha).

More detailed information – including regional data – covering also estimates of yields per hectare and harvest of early potatoes, field pea, selected fruits and vegetables, is shown in the related tables Harvest forecast - July 2006.

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Note
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 274 052 331, e-mail: jiri.hrbek@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 14 July 2006
End of data processing: 4 August 2006
Related tables: Harvest forecast – July 2006 (contains detailed information covering also estimates of yields per hectare and harvest of early potatoes, field pea, selected fruits and vegetables - also at /katalog-produktu )
Update procedure: Next forecast of the yields and production of selected agricultural crops referring to 15 August 2006 will be released by the Czech Statistical Office on 6 September 2006.