Harvest forecast - July 2005

Based on this year’s second estimates of hectare yields and production made as at 15 July 2005 the CZSO expects the production of main cereals to total 7 318 thousand tonnes and of rape 774 thousand tonnes. Compared to the previous year’s real harvest figures, this translates into a drop of 901 thousand tonnes (-11.0%) for the main cereals and of 160 thousand tonnes (-17.2%) for the rape. Compared to the 20 June 2005 estimates, however, these estimates are higher by 23 thousand tonnes (+0.3%) for the former and by 20 thousand tonnes (+2.6%) for the latter.

The lower estimate of the production of main cereals is a result of a 7 367 ha drop in areas under crops on the one hand and a lower estimated average hectare yield (4.86 t/ha as against 5.43 t/ha in 2004) on the other hand. The expected lower production of rape is attributable to a lower hectare yield only—2.90 t/ha compared to 3.60 t/ha in 2004. The area under rape was higher by 7 700 ha year-on-year.

Estimated for the first time this year have been the hectare yield and production for poppy seed. The area under poppy was enlarged to 45 thousand hectares, which makes up an increase of 17 thousand hectares on last year (+61.6%). The expected production of 33 thousand tonnes is 8 thousand tonnes up on the last year’s final harvest (+34.1%). The estimated average hectare yield of 0.75 t/ha is 0.15 t/ha down on the previous year (-17.1%), though.

Estimated production of main market crops:
The production of winter wheat is expected to amount to 4 013 thousand tonnes, the yield per hectare being 5.26 tonnes—this accounts for a drop of 16.0% compared to the production achieved in 2004. The estimate for spring barley is 1 827 thousand tonnes with expected 4.61 tonnes of the crop harvested from one hectare (+5.3% on 2004). This compared to the 20 June 2005 estimates gives an increase of 16 thousand tonnes (+0.4%) and of 3 thousand tonnes (+0.2%) for winter wheat and spring barley, respectively.

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Note
Contact: Jiří Hrbek, phone (+420) 24 052 331, e-mail: hrbek@gw.czso.cz
Data source: CZSO sample survey in businesses farming agricultural land
End of data collection: 15 July 2005
End of data processing: 3 August 2005
Related publication: 2121-05 Harvest Forecast: 15 July 2005 ( https://csu.gov.cz )
Update: Next forecast of the yields and production of selected agricultural crops made as at 15 August 2005 will be released by the CZSO on 7 September 2005.