GDP preliminary estimate - 4. quarter of 2008
GDP up by 1.0% in the fourth quarter, up by 3.5% in 2008
Publication Date: 13. 02. 2009
Product Code: r-5001-08
In Q4 2008, according to a preliminary estimate, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and working day effects grew by 1.0% in comparison to Q4 2007 and decreased by 0.6% in comparison to Q3 2008. GDP for the year 2008 increased by 3.5%.
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In Q4 2008, according to a preliminary estimate, real GDP (adjusted for seasonal and working day effects) fell by 0.6% in comparison to Q3 2008 and increased by 1.0% in comparison to Q4 2007. Seasonally adjusted total employment (national accounts approach) fell by 0.1% on Q3 2008, but grew by 0.7% on Q4 2007.
In comparison to 2007, real GDP for the whole year 2008 grew by 3.5% and employment rose by 1.7% on average. Increase of labour productivity and increase of employment thus contributed to GDP growth by roughly the same percentage.
The sharp year-on-year slowdown and quarter-on-quarter decrease of real GDP in Q4 2008 were affected by several circumstances:
- Since roughly mid-2007 the Czech economy has been in a downward phase of the business cycle, which was reflected in a relatively low yet persisting slowdown of GDP growth in Q1–Q3 2008.
- The global financial crisis left the Czech Republic actually untouched but has resulted in a significantly reduced demand for goods and services worldwide. This confronts the strongly export-oriented Czech economy with sizeable selling difficulties aggravated by the more cautious approach of commercial banks towards financing the business sector and population.
- Due to certain administrative measures the comparative basis (Q4 2007) was high. The expected impacts of laws brought in at the beginning of 2008 (especially introduction of medical fees, VAT increase from 5 to 9 per cent and higher excise tax on tobacco products) and related advance private buying of goods and services had a strongly boosting impact on value added produced in Q4 2007.
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This CZSO preliminary estimate is based on available information from relevant statistical surveys and administrative data sources; mathematical and statistical methods, imputations and expert estimates have been used. For this reason the standard estimate of GDP growth and GDP components growth to be published on 11 March 2009 may slightly differ from the data released now.
Contact: Jan Heller, phone (+420) 274 052 865, e-mail : jan.heller@csu.gov.cz