Approximate Valuation of Life Insurance Portfolio with the Cluster Analysis: Trade-Off Between Computation Time and Precision
Jan Fojtík, Jiří Procházka, Pavel Zimmermann
Statistika, 101(4): 406-421
Statistika, 101(4): 406-421
Abstract
Valuation of the insurance portfolio is one of the essential actuarial tasks. Life insurance valuation is usually based on a projection of cash flows for each policy which is demanding computation time. Furthermore, modern financial management requires multiple valuations under different scenarios or input parameters. A method to reduce computation time while preserving as much accuracy as possible based on cluster analysisis p resented. The basic idea of the method is to replace the original portfolio by a smaller representative portfolio based on clusters with some weights that would ensure the similarity of the valuation results to the original portfolio. Valuation is then significantly faster but requires initial time for clustering and the results are only approximate – different from the original results. The difference is studied for a different number of clusters and the trade-off between the approximation error and calculation time is evaluated.
Valuation of the insurance portfolio is one of the essential actuarial tasks. Life insurance valuation is usually based on a projection of cash flows for each policy which is demanding computation time. Furthermore, modern financial management requires multiple valuations under different scenarios or input parameters. A method to reduce computation time while preserving as much accuracy as possible based on cluster analysisis p resented. The basic idea of the method is to replace the original portfolio by a smaller representative portfolio based on clusters with some weights that would ensure the similarity of the valuation results to the original portfolio. Valuation is then significantly faster but requires initial time for clustering and the results are only approximate – different from the original results. The difference is studied for a different number of clusters and the trade-off between the approximation error and calculation time is evaluated.
Keywords
Life insurance, portfolio valuation, cash flow projection, cluster analyses