Quarterly GDP refined estimate - 1 quarter

In Q1 2009 real gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects fell by 3.4% compared with Q4 2008 and Q1 2008 as well. The figures reflect the decreasing economic performance, especially in manufacturing, related to a considerable decrease in demand for investment and export goods. Final consumption expenditure grew.


According to the updated estimate based on fairly complete data sources, in Q1 2009 real GDP fell by 3.4% in comparison with both Q1 2008 and Q4 2008 ^{. */}

Nominal GDP increased by 0.4% in comparison with Q1 2008 because the overall price level measured by GDP implicit deflator grew sizeably (+4.0%). It was the impact of a 3.9% increase in export prices resulting from depreciation of the koruna against the euro and US dollar. Import prices grew by 2.2%, i.e. less than export prices, which contributed to the growth of the GDP deflator. Compared with Q1 2008, prices of fixed capital acquisitions grew markedly as well (+4.3%), while prices of final household consumption expenditure rose by only 1.2% on average.

On the demand side of the economy the main contributor to a 3.2% decrease (compared with Q1 2008) in total gross value added (GVA) was manufacturing where the fall was 10.6%. High annual decreases hit also wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods (-8.0%), financial and insurance activities (-6.7%) and construction (-3.9%). In contrast, marked GVA increases were recorded in electricity, gas and water supply (+12.0%) and human health, veterinary and social work activities (+9.8%). A fall of 4.4% was registered in the second most important component of GDP by kind of activity, i.e. taxes on products, especially value added tax.

Annual changes in individual demand components varied considerably in Q1 2009, and so did the contributions of demand components to GDP development (compared with Q1 2008):

• A 3.6% increase in final consumption expenditure in Q1 2009 contributed positively by 2.5 percentage points to GDP growth. This growth was due to increases in both household expenditure and general government expenditure. The nominal growth of 4.3% in household expenditure was not significantly eliminated by increase in prices and thus real household expenditure grew by 3.0%. General government expenditure classified in final consumption expenditure increased by sizeable 5.2%. A key role was played by increase in costs on health care of health insurance companies.
• Gross capital formation declined by 16.2%, which was a negative contribution of 4.1 p.p. to GDP growth. Gross fixed capital formation dropped by 3.4%; major decreases were recorded in investment in transport equipment and buildings and structures. The fall in inventories during Q1 2009 was estimated at CZK 8.0 billion (current prices, NSA). In Q1 2008 inventories grew by CZK 15.2 billion.
• Surplus of external trade in goods and services at current prices (CZK +48.3 billion) was by only CZK 5.7 billion lower in comparison with Q1 2008, but trade surplus at constant prices fell by 33.1% due to different trends in export and import prices. Real exports fell by 20.5% and real imports by 19.6%. The negative contribution of external trade to GDP growth was 1.7 p.p.

The falling economic performance brought about a decrease in total employment, by 0.2% (SA) compared with Q4 2008 and 0.5% compared with Q1 2008. Total employment (according to national accounts methodology) was 5 265 thousand on average, i.e. down by 35 thousand on Q1 2008.

According to Eurostat’s estimate of 3 June 2009, GDP fell by 4.5% in the EU27 and by 4.8% in the euro area, compared with Q1 2008. Among the main trading partners of the Czech Republic, GDP decreases were observed in Germany (-6.9%), Slovakia (-5.4%), Hungary (-4.7%) and Austria (-2.9%); GDP in Poland grew (+1.9%).



In compliance with the announced revision policy the Czech Statistical Office carried out the routine data revision of national accounts for 2006 and 2007. As a result the corresponding quarterly indicators for 2005 to 2008 have been updated. GDP updates and corrections on a quarterly basis are illustrated in the following table:




Preliminary estimate of GDP for Q2 2009 will be released on 14 August 2009.

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^*/ Unless otherwise stated all data presented in this news release are adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects.

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Contact: Jan Heller, phone (+420) 274 052 865, e-mail: jan.heller@csu.gov.cz
Related time series: /produkty/hdp_ts
Selected tables: http://www.czso.cz/eng/edicniplan.nsf/p/50n1-el