Development of external trade price indices - 3. quarter of 2004
Product Code: e-7232-04
Development of external trade price indices in the third quarter of 2004
Month-on-month evaluation:
Both import and export prices were increasing during all the three months of the third quarter of 2004. At the same time, during the entire period, external trade price indices were (as usually) influenced also by Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to main foreign currencies, especially to EUR and USD, although in different extent and even in different direction. In July and September, Czech koruna appreciated month-on-month in total and the exchange rate influence thus decreased price indices, while in August it was vice versa.
Import prices increased in the third quarter by 0.5% in average, which is (after the 0.2% decrease in the second quarter) growth by 0.7 percentual points. The biggest increase in the third quarter (+3.9%) was recorded for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’, especially petroleum, petroleum products and related materials +5.1%. When compared to the second quarter, it was the growth by 2.2 and 3.1 percentual points, respectively. These values correspond very well with energies price growth on world markets. Prices of petroleum and natural gas increased there by 4.9% (+2.8 percentual points), of which only petroleum Brent increased +6.3% (+3.6 percentual points). Growth of world prices of petroleum thus naturally resulted in not only an increase of import prices of petroleum, petroleum products and related materials but also in general in price growth of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ as well as in growth of import prices of other sections, especially ‘chemicals and related products’. Their prices increased by 0.6% (i.e. +1.4 percentual points); the fastest growth was for organic chemicals +3.0%. On the contrary, in metalliferous ores and metal scrap (after the price boom in the second quarter) growth of prices was much more moderate (decrease by 8.0 percentual points) in the third quarter, which also caused a slowdown of price growth in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ from 1.5% to 0.3%. However, the growth of prices of metals in the second quarter was reflected with some delay in the next quarter in the price growth (or in moderation of a decrease) of other sections. It applied especially to ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (decrease by 0.2% in the second quarter and growth by 0.5% in the third quarter) and ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (decrease by 0.7% in the second quarter but only by 0.1% in the following quarter).
Export prices (after stagnation in the second quarter) increased in the third quarter by 0.4% in average. The same as for import prices, also in export prices the biggest price growth was recorded for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (+3.8%), which resulted in price growth of ‘chemicals and related products’ +2.4% (especially plastics, fertilizers and organic chemicals). Growth of metal prices on world markets was reflected in price growth of ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ by 0.6% in average in the third quarter, i.e. +1.8 percentual points when especially prices of metalliferous ores and metal scrap were increasing (+6.6%, i.e. +12.7 percentual points). The growth of metal prices was probably also one of the reasons for a lower decrease of prices in ‘machinery and transport equipment’ from 99.2% in the second quarter to 99.7% in the third quarter (especially in the division of general industrial machinery and equipment and machine parts and the division of metalworking machinery by 0.9 and 0.7 percentual points, respectively).
Terms of trade reached in average the negative value of 99.9% in the third quarter, which was the lowest value since the second quarter of 2001. When compared to the second quarter it was a decrease by 0.3 percentual points. It was due to further decrease of the terms of trade value in ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (which is the most important section as for weight) to 99.8%. Terms of trade value in ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ remained positive (100.1%); however, in comparison with the second quarter it was a decrease by 1.5 percentual points. On the contrary, terms of trade value grew distinctively in ‘chemicals and related products’ to 101.8% (+1.2 percentual points).
Year-on-year evaluation:
External trade prices were increasing y-o-y in average in the third quarter (the same as in the second quarter). Again, there was a rather big influence of Czech koruna exchange rate in relation to main foreign currencies. In the second quarter, Czech koruna was depreciating in total and exchange rate influences were thus increasing external trade price indices, while in the third quarter it was the other way around.
Import prices increased in average for the third quarter of 2004 by 2.3% y-o-y, i.e. by 0.1 percentual point more than in the previous quarter. This time the biggest increase occurred in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ in the third quarter (+12.7%, petroleum, petroleum products and related materials in particular). When compared to the second quarter they increased by 5.0 percentual points and reflected price growth of petroleum on world markets. Price of petroleum Brent increased there in average for the third quarter by 44.4% y-o-y (+8.0 percentual points when compared to the second quarter) and thus recorded the highest y-o-y quarterly growth since the beginning of measurement in January 2001. Petroleum price growth gradually influenced growing of prices of other sections, too, especially ‘chemicals and related products’ (+2.1%, organic chemicals, fertilizers and plastics in particular). In the third quarter, also prices of ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ markedly increased y-o-y (+12.0%, metalliferous ores and metal scrap in particular). The reason was steep growth (+30.7%) of metal prices on world markets in the mentioned period as well as of metal scrap. This price development was reflected also in the price growth of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+4.8%, especially iron and steel, and non-ferrous metals). Decreasing were especially prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (-2.0%, telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment in particular); however, the main reason was influence of exchange rate.
Export prices have been increasing y-o-y already since April 2003. In the third quarter of 2004, they increased in average by 3.9% y-o-y, i.e. by 0.4 percentual points less than in the second quarter. However, the reason for this lower growth was mainly influence of exchange rates. Similarly as at import prices, the biggest growth of export prices was recorded for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (+25.1%, coal and petroleum products in particular). Prices of ‘chemicals and related products’ rose markedly, too (+12.2%, organic chemicals and plastics in particular) as well as ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+9.5%, especially iron and steel, and manufactures of metals). Prices of these sections grew at the same time faster than in the second quarter due to the same reasons as for import prices. Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased in particular (-0.8%, especially general industrial machinery and equipment and machine parts), i.e. by 3.0 percentual points in comparison with the second quarter. One of the reasons for this decrease was again influence of exchange rates.
Terms of trade reached the value of 101.6% in average for the third quarter of 2004, i.e. by 0.5 percentual points lower than in the previous quarter. Terms of trade were decreasing all the time during the third quarter; in individual months they gradually reached the value of 101.9%, 101.6%, and 101.3%. The main cause of this trend was mainly the development in ‘machinery and transport equipment’. Terms of trade reached there the value of 101.2% in average in the third quarter. It was by 1.4 percentual points less than in the previous quarter and at the same time it was the lowest value of the terms of trade of this section since the third quarter of 2002. Moreover, for the first time since that period, the terms of trade value of this section was lower than the total terms of trade value. When compared to the second quarter, positive values changed to negative (99.6%) in ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’. On the contrary, very positive development of terms of trade was in ‘chemicals and related products’ (109.9%, i.e. growth by 9.2 percentual points), ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (111.0%) and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (104.5%).
Director: Jiří Mrázek, tel. (+420) 27405 2533
