Quarterly National Accounts of the Czech Republic
Introductory note | Contents |
The publication presents quarterly estimates of GDP and other indicators of national accounts at current prices and 1995 constant prices for the period of the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003, both original (seasonally non-adjusted) and seasonally adjusted time series. In comparison with the data published 9 December 2003, indicators for the 1st , 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2003 were revised with respect to updated data from quarterly statistical surveys processing of February 2004.
Complete time series of GDP resources and expenditure on GDP for the period of the first quarter of 1994 to the fourth quarter of 2003 (both raw and seasonally adjusted) are newly presented for the users at the web site /docs/107516/4908e86e-2235-03f7-f1ce-613e2bdc7250/gdp-ts.htm (these time series were updated 10 March 2004 and will be replaced by revised data in June 2004).
In addition to data on sources and expenditures on GDP, the publication brings quarterly breakdown of gross fixed capital formation for the period of the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003.
The publication also shows quarterly accounts for the households sector for the period of the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003 at current prices, not seasonally adjusted.
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Methodological note on the data consistency
At present, a historical revision of annual national accounts of the 1995-2000 years is being realized. Its purpose is an applying of methodological changes in the whole time series
(for details see the CZSO press release of 24 October 2003). This revision will raise a similar revision of quarterly breakdown of corresponding annual national accounts indicators. This is the reason why the table „U 2003 – Supplementary Indicators in 1990 – 2003“ contains non-revised data of 1990-2002 time series. It means also that 2000 and 2001 GDP data in the table mentioned above do not correspond to data published in the publication „Annual National Accounts 2000 – 2001“ being released in December 2003. The results of the extraordinary revision of 2000, 2001 and 2002 annual national accounts, which was announced by the CZSO press release of 24 October 2003, were not also reflected in the quarterly data. Data of quarterly national accounts reconciliated with revised annual national accounts for the period 1995 – 2002 are to be released in June 2004.
Methodological note on the organisational change in Czech Railways
The rise in the final consumption expenditure by the sector of government institutions at current prices was partially due to an organisational change, as this sector was expanded by the new state-owned organisation Správa železniční dopravní cesty (Railway Infrastructure Administration). This organisation was split off from the state-owned organisation České dráhy (Czech Railways) according to the law of 5 February 2002 concerning transformation of the Czech Railways. Two independent entities came into being 1 January 2003: joint stock company Czech Railways (sector of non-financial corporations, NACE 60) and state-owned organisation Railway Infrastructure Administration (sector of government institutions, NACE 63). Constant price government expenditure does not any longer reflect the impacts of this organisational change and thus constant price indicators are comparable y-o-y. This approach raised the deflator of government final consumption expenditure.
Methodological note on seasonal adjustment
The publication includes current price and 1995 constant price values of GDP and GDP components, as they were produced and used, which are adjusted for seasonal variation. The seasonal adjustment is carried out with the help of the TRAMO/SEATS method, which consists in decomposing the time series into trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components. The seasonal component is excluded and the remaining three are put together to make up a seasonally adjusted time series. The total of seasonally adjusted values corresponds to the total of original values for each year. Differences between seasonally adjusted GDP and the total of expenditures (or resources) are shown as discrepancies. The influence of a different number of working days in individual quarters does not seem to be significant statistically, which is why no adjustment for the influence was made. The seasonally adjusted time series are retrospectively recalculated every quarter with regard to extension and revision of the original non-adjusted time series.
Methodological note on the Table: “Supplementary Indicators”
CZK-to-USD purchasing power parity (PPP) was calculated by retro-extrapolating data obtained in the OECD international comparison for 1996, following the trend in the proportion of nominal to real GDP developments for the Czech Republic and the U.S.A. and taking into account the development of mutual exchange rate of the two currencies. The calculations were made retrospectively back to 1990, or they were extrapolated to the years 1997 and 1998. For 1999, new data were used according to the OECD international comparison programme results for 1999. These data were extrapolated to years 2000, 2001 and 2002 similarly as were results for 1996 to years 1997 and 1998. The extrapolation of the 2003 data comes out of the already published calculation for the 2002 year and is based on 2002 USA GDP data and on preliminary 2003 data of revised time series of Bureau of Economic Analysis (of 27 February 2004).
The table „U 2003 – Supplementary Indicators“ in the next publication „Quarterly National Accounts in the 1st quarter of 2004“ (in June 2004) is expected to be revised using revised annual national accounts of the Czech Republic (since 1995 year) and revised PPP time series from Eurostat for the same period. The present preliminary estimate of mid-year population will be refined, too.
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GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2004 is to be released on 10 June 2004.
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The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.