Cointegration Analysis of Stock Indices and Money Supply M2 in Selected Countries

Richard Synek, Jitka Veselá
Statistika, 104(2): 135–162
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2024.7

Abstract
This paper focuses on the examination of the long-run relationship between money supply and selected national and global stock indices. Detailed knowledge of this relationship can be used by analysts, investors and monetary policy makers. Analysis of the relationship was performed using a 2-stage Engle-Granger cointegration. First, the stationarity of the time series was tested, then both the long-term OLS model and the short-term EC model were estimated. Time series were always tested on the longest period for which data were available. The longterm dependence of stock indices on the respective M2 was confirmed for the BOVESPA, FTSE100, S&P/BMV IPC, S&P BSE500, TSX and The 5000 Wilshire Small Cap Price Return indices. In contrast, the dependence between world money supply indicator GlobalM2, the stock index FTSEALL World, and the S&P500 index was not demonstrated. Additionally, no dependence was identified between the respective M2 and the DAX, PX, Nikkei225, KOSPI, SMI, SPCITIC300, Eurostoxx50, Willshire5000PR and ATX indices. Backward dependence of M2 on the stock index was found only for the Chinese SPCITIC300 index.

Keywords
Money supply, stock index, interest rate, Engle-Granger test, EC model