Demografie, revue pro výzkum populačního vývoje - č. 2/2026

Demografie, 68(2): 106–115
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0380

Abstract
Long-term tobacco smoking is the primary cause of lung cancer and a major driver of avoidable mortality, but the impact of tobacco control policies on lung cancer mortality is delayed by 20–30 years. This study analyses period and cohort trends in lung cancer mortality in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland from 1950 to 2023 within the framework of the smoking epidemic model and the timing of tobacco control policy implementation. Using harmonised cause-of-death data and population exposure, we examined age-standardised mortality rates and cohort patterns. The results revealed pronounced cohort effects and substantial gender disparities, with earlier peaks and subsequent declines in male mortality, particularly in Czechia, and later increases or plateauing trends among females across all three countries, consistent with different stages of the smoking epidemic model. Comparisons with policy timing indicate that lung cancer mortality declines cannot be attributed to tobacco control policies alone. In Czechia, declines began before major interventions, while in Hungary and Poland, they occurred later but still reflect earlier smoking histories. Lung cancer mortality trends are thus primarily driven by cohort-specific smoking histories, with policies influencing outcomes indirectly over the long term.  

Keywords
tobacco control policies, lung cancer mortality, cohort mortality, Central Europe