Long-Term Care Dependency in the Czech Republic: A Population-Based Model for an Ageing Society

Jiří Vopátek – Vladislav Bína
Demografie, 68(2): 120–146
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0381

Abstract
Population ageing will increase long-term care needs in the Czech Republic, where support relies heavily on family caregiving and a public care allowance. Using administrative counts of allowance recipients (2014–2024, collected by Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and available at Czech Statistical Office, 2025a) and the Czech Statistical Office population projection (2025–2080, Czech Statistical Office, 2024), we project age–sex patterns of care need with a mixed-effects multinomial logit model. For 2025–2040, prevalence rises in most groups, particularly at ages 85+.

Keywords
long-term care, informal caregiving, care dependence, social care policy, population ageing, Czech Republic, projection modelling