What Does Demographic Resilience Mean in the Context of Sustained Depopulation and Rapid Ageing?

Olga Gagauz – Mariana Buciuceanu-Vrabie
Demografie, 68(3): 151–166
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0382

Abstract
Rapid ageing and sustained depopulation are reshaping the conditions under which societies maintain economic activity, social provision and institutional capacity. The study develops a conceptual framework for demographic resilience in contexts where population decline is not a temporary deviation but a long-term structural condition. The article defines resilience as the capacity of socio-demographic systems to maintain core societal functions under shrinking and ageing population structures. The framework links four interacting dimensions: economic adaptation; social and care provision; human capital formation and retention; and institutional capacity for anticipatory governance, policy coordination, and adaptive implementation. Methodologically, the article is based on a conceptual synthesis of resilience theory, demographic transition research and depopulation studies, complemented by an illustrative case study of Moldova. The article contributes to demographic debate by shifting attention from reversing decline to assessing how societies can adapt to persistent demographic constraints while preserving equity, service access and governance capacity.

Keywords
demographic resilience, depopulation, population ageing, adaptive governance