Population Dynamics and Demographic Crises in the Parish of Detva (1781–1920): Evidence from Inverse Projection

Ján Golian – Piotr Rachwał – Grażyna Liczbińska
Demografie, 68(3): 182–205
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0389

Abstract
This study provides a comprehensive historical demographic analysis of the parish of Detva, located in present-day Slovakia, covering the period 1781–1920. It aims to reconstruct long-term population dynamics and assess the determinants of demographic change in a rural Central European setting, where systematic census data are limited. Parish registers of births, deaths, and marriages serve as the primary sources, with a total of 58,551 baptisms and 39,032 deaths analysed to reconstruct population dynamics. The study applies the inverse projection method, enabling the estimation of population size, age structure, fertility, mortality, and other key demographic indicators in a context where census data are incomplete or unavailable.
The results reveal that the parish experienced gradual population growth, punctuated by periods of crisis caused by epidemics, famine, economic instability, and emigration. Crude Birth and Death Rates, along with Gross and Net Reproduction Rates (GRR and NRR), indicate sustained generational replacement, with fertility remaining high until the late 19th century and only declining under the influence of economic and wartime crises. Life expectancy at birth (e_0) remained relatively low, averaging around 32 years, reflecting high mortality among children and the elderly before the demographic transition. The age structure was dominated by children and young adults, while the oldest age groups were consistently underrepresented due to high mortality. These findings suggest that the demographic regime of Detva remained largely pre-transitional well into the late 19th century, with only partial and delayed responses to broader socio-economic transformations. This research highlights the complex interplay of economic, social, and epidemiological factors in shaping population dynamics in a rural Slovak parish. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of historical demographic processes in Central Europe and demonstrate the value of parish registers and model-based reconstructions for studying populations in pre-statistical periods.

Keywords
inverse projection method, demographic reconstruction, vital rates, life expectancy, age structure, historical population studies