Services - 4. quarter of 2004

The 4th quarter of 2004

 

Sales in observed kinds of services in the 4th quarter were up by 2.6% y-o-y at constant prices, the number of working days being by 2 days higher than in 2003. Working days adjusted (WDA) and seasonally adjusted (SA) sales grew by 2.5%. The high comparing base of the 4th quarter of 2003 in some kinds of services was one of the reasons for a lower growth (by 0.6 percentage points), compared with the annual average.

 

Sales in total retail trade rose by 3.6% (the highest growth among all the quarters of 2004), in transport, post and telecommunications by 2.4% (the lowest increase over the last two years), while sales in selected market services dropped by 0.4% y-o-y (the worst result since the 1st quarter of 2003).

 

Sales in retail trade incl. the automotive segment were up by 4.1% in the 4th quarter, which was more than in any other quarter of 2004, the growth being highest in November. Compared to the annual average, sales in both kinds of services grew more. More than three-fifths of the trend in the automotive segment are determined by sale and repair of motor vehicles, which decreased in October, but the favourable trend in the last two months of the year was decisive and sales rose by 6.6% in the 4th quarter. Sale of automotive fuel in December was affected by an exceptionally high comparing base (sale grew by 18.6% in December 2003 because both wholesalers and consumers supplied themselves in advance, expecting price increases due to higher excise tax), yet a rise of 4.5% was reached in total in the 4th quarter. Sales in retail trade grew by 3.3 %, the situation in the food (+3.5%) and non-food (+3.3%) segments following the same pattern. In the food segment, sales grew slower in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating (+3.2%), which are more important in terms of weights, than in specialised stores (+5.5%). In the non-food segment, sale of textiles, clothing and footwear in specialised stores rose most (+10.8%), even though the growth rate slowed down against the preceding quarters and the 4th quarter saw an increase that was by 1.4 percentage points lower than the average increase since the beginning of the year. Likewise, a below-the-average growth, compared to the all-year result, occurred in specialised stores with pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles and in stores selling electronics, furniture and household articles. In hotels and restaurants, total sales fell by 2.4% in spite of the fact that sales in hotels, which were booming, grew by 8.6%. However, restaurants – more important in terms of weights (having roughly a three-quarter share in sales) – recorded a decrease of 5.8%.

 

 

Sales in transport grew less dynamically than in the preceding quarters of 2004 (+2.4%). Y–o–y increases were recorded in most of important kinds of transport: 3.5% in transport via railways, 3.7% in transport by road and as much as 6.7% in air transport (also numbers of passengers and person-kilometres were up). Sales in water transport grew at high rates in the 3rd and 4th quarters, due to a low comparing base, because water conditions were unfavourable in 2003 (insufficient water depth). Sales in supporting and auxiliary transport activities stagnated.

Sales in post and telecommunications were up by 2.5%; telecommunications being the driving force (+2.8%), while sales in post and courier activities fell (-0.3%).

 

Sales in computer and related activities fell by 9.2%, which is the highest y-o-y decrease since 1998. The underlying reason was a high comparing base of the 4th quarter of 2003 when the growth of sales in December broke the record due to expected higher VAT rate.

Sales in other business activities grew by 2.3%. All items rose y-o-y, with the exception of advertising, where a drop (-1.9%) was recorded for the first time since the beginning of the year. The incessant growth of sales (since the 4th quarter of 1999) in labour recruitment and provision of personnel continued. After two quarters of decreases, sales in miscellaneous business activities recorded a rise of 7.8% y-o-y.

There was no change in other service activities in the 4th quarter either and sales were below the 2003 level (-4.3%) again. After a nearly three-year growth, sales in washing and dry-cleaning of textile and fur products dropped (-3.1%).

 

The year 2004

 

Development in the year 2004 was marked by several extraordinary effects. They were changes in VAT rates of some kinds of services (e.g. restaurants, telecommunications, and most of market services) and a change in excise tax (automotive fuel). Enterprises responded to these expected changes by pre-invoicing, consumers supplied themselves in advance.

The accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union on 1 May 2004 played a certain role too. It made trade with the EU Member States easier by removal of some of the administrative formalities, which reduced demand for services of some enterprises serving carriers. From boosting tourism benefited enterprises providing accommodation services and travel agencies.

As the above-mentioned changes took place step by step, they affected sales in more periods of time and in a differentiated way by kind of activity. The total of all the effects showed itself in higher sales in 2004, which were in observed kinds of services by 3.2% up y-o-y at constant prices, i.e. by 1.5 percentage points less than in 2003. The highest growth was reported for transport.

Constant price sales in retail trade incl. the automotive segment rose y-o-y in all the quarters of 2004, least in the 1st quarter and most in the 4th quarter, in total by 2.5% in the year. (See News Releases – Retail trade in the 4th quarter of 2004 for detailed assessment). A fall in sales in restaurants was started in connection with an amendment to the VAT Act in May 2004, which raised VAT rate in restaurants. Although sales in enterprises with 100 or more employees grew, small enterprises, which are more important in terms of weights, began to record decreases just from May. This was the reason for a fall in the whole segment of hotels and restaurants in the 2nd half of the year, even though sales in hotels rose in each month and their average annual growth was 11.9%.
 Sales in transport were up by 7.5% y-o-y in 2004, which was the highest increase since 2000; sales grew in every important kind of transport. A high y-o-y increase was observed in air transport where, particularly due to the 1st half of the year (+23.8%), sales were 12.2% above the annual 2003 level. Also transport by road raised its sales, which grew considerably faster in the 1st half of the year than in the 2nd half. Sales in water transport fell in the 1st half of the year, but they reached a record-breaking rate in the 2nd half (+59.2% – as a result of a low comparing base in 2003 when there was insufficient depth of water), which markedly contributed to annual growth of sales by 19.3%.

A y-o-y rise of 3.3% was reported for post and telecommunications. After two years of decreases, post and courier activities saw a growth of 4.0%, inter alia due to newly charged comprehensive payments. On the other hand, sales in telecommunications grew least since the beginning of the survey (+3.2%), proving the saturation of the market.

Sales in computer and related activities fell by 1.2% y-o-y in 2004. While they grew by 6.9% in the 1st half of the year, they did not reach the high comparing base of 2003 in the 2nd half. This development was particularly affected by sales in software consultancy and supply where the increase of 10.9% reached in the 1st half of the year turned into a fall of 6.4%. Sales in the remaining activities went down throughout the year. Sales in other business activities grew by 3.0%, just like in 2003. All observed activities showed y-o-y increases. Record-breaking sales were reported for legal, accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities and tax consultancy (+4.9%), which was probably connected to the accession of the CR to the EU when enterprises trying for participation in EU markets or for getting subsidies from the EU budget began to use these services more. A similar growth (+5.0%) was observed in architectural and engineering activities where, however, the growth markedly slowed down after joining the EU and transfer of these services to the basic VAT rate (+9.4% in the 1st half of the year, and only +1.9% in the 2nd half).