Export and import price indices - September 2004
Slowdown in year-on-year growth of export prices
Publication Date: 12. 11. 2004
Product Code: r-7201-04
Goods import and export price indices in the CR
September 2004
September 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- Both import and export prices increased in September by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively and thus rose already the third month. While import prices increased slower (+0.8% in August), export prices increased the same as in August.
Imports : Prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ increased most already the third month, but this time only 1.4% (natural gas in particular). Despite that, the price growth of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ influenced the total increase of month-on-month import price index most. Prices of ‘food and live animals’ rose as well by 0.8% (meat and meat preparations in particular) and ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ by 0.5% (especially skins and rubber). Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ after growth in August by 0.2% decreased by the same value (-0.2%) in September when prices of almost all of their divisions decreased.
Exports : The highest price growth was for ‘chemicals and related products’ prices +1.5% (plastics in particular). Prices of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ also increased +1.3% (electric current in particular), but the biggest influence on the increase of the total m-o-m export price index was due to price increase of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ +0.5% (especially iron and steel). Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased again (power-generating machinery and equipment in particular) but only -0.1%, i.e. by 0.8 percentual points less than in August. Price decrease was recorded also for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ and ‘food and live animals’, both -0.6%.
- Terms of trade reached the value of 100.2% in September, which is 0.7 percentual points more than in August and after two months they thus returned to positive values. Terms of trade in section ‘machinery and transport equipment’ developed in a positive way in comparison with August: they reached the value of 100.1% in September, i.e. by 1.2 percentual points more. Positive values were also at ‘chemicals and related products’ (101.4%) and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (100.5%) in particular, while negative values were especially at ‘food and live animals’ (98.6%) and ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (98.9%).
Year-on-year comparison:
- Import prices increased in September the same as in August by 2.2% and thus they rose already for the seventh month. The highest growth of import prices was recorded again for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ +15.4% (petroleum, petroleum products and related materials in particular) and already long-term for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ +11.3% (metalliferous ores in particular). Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased -2.3% (telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment in particular). Y-o-y, import prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ have been continuously decreasing since November 2000.
- Export prices increased y-o-y by 3.5% and continued in their growth, which started in April 2003. However, in September they increased by 0.3 percentage points less than in August and their growth thus slowed down already for the fourth month. The most significant price growth takes place already since November 2003 in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ this time by +26.0% (especially in coal and petroleum products). The rise in prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ +9.9% (iron and steel in particular) had a dominant impact on the increase of the total index of export prices. Prices of ‘chemicals and related products’ rose markedly (+13.2%) in context with the price growth of crude oil on world markets. Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased by 1.9% (general industrial machinery and equipment in particular). This was already the second decrease (this time more noticeable by 0.5 percentual points) of y-o-y prices in this section after long-term growth since May 2003. As for other significant sections, prices of ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ decreased by 1.4%.
- Terms of trade reached the value of 101.3%, which was again by 0.3 percentage points less than in the previous month and at the same time it was the lowest value since November 2003. Drop of their value continued (by 0.3 percentage points) in section ‘machinery and transport equipment’ to 100.4%. The highest value of the terms of trade was in ‘chemicals and related products (111.1%). Positive figures were recorded also especially for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (109.2% and 105.1%, respectively). Negative terms of trade were in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ (92.0%) and ‘beverages and tobacco’ (81.2%) in particular.
CZSO world price index of raw materials and food 1)
October 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- The world prices covered by the index increased in total markedly by 10.5% in October. This was the highest growth since the beginning of measuring of this index, i.e. since January 2001. The main cause was steep growth of crude oil and natural gas. Their price increased in total by 13.0% (petroleum Brent +15.8% and natural gas +9.5%). At the total value and natural gas they were again the highest recorded maxima, at petroleum Brent it was the highest growth since March 2002. This significant growth was caused by high demand from China and India in particular and insufficient supply (especially due to strikes in Norwegian and Nigerian oil industry and slow renewal of refineries in the Mexican gulf after hurricane Ivan). In October, prices of metals increased as well (by +5.6%, the highest growth since February). Prices of textile raw materials and wood decreased in particular.
Year-on-year comparison:
In October, the world prices were 37.7% up in total and the same as in the m-o-m comparison it was the highest recorded growth. Prices of oil and natural gas increased 47.7% in total, from that petroleum Brent even by 70.3% and natural gas by 24.4%. In case of the first two values it was the highest recorded maximum, at natural gas the highest growth since September 2003. Prices of metals increased y-o-y by 32.0% in total and thus increased their growth already the second month. Prices of food and wood increased, too. Only prices of textile raw materials, leathers and rubber decreased.
1) The world prices follow actual prices in terms of original currencies read at commodity exchanges and indicate in advance the nature of the future development of Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.
Analysis - Development of external trade price indices in the third quarter of 2004
Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, tel. (+420) 27405 2196, e-mail: jiri.choun@csu.gov.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-04 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
7202-04 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
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The released data are definitive.