Export and import price indices - July 2004
July: month-on-month terms of trade values decreased
Publication Date: 14. 09. 2004
Product Code: r-7201-04
Goods import and export price indices in the CR
July 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- Both import and export prices increased in July by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. After a two-month decrease they thus began to increase again.
Imports : The highest price increase was recorded for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (+4.1%, for petroleum, petroleum products in particular). Prices of this section reflected the steep growth of petroleum prices on the world commodity exchange. Price growth of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ at the same time had the most significant influence on the increase of the total import price index. Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ decreased by 0.2% (mainly telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment) and thus they decreased already the fourth month.
Exports : The highest price increase was recorded for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’, too (+4.8%, for coal, coke and briquettes in particular). Because of relatively lower weight of this section the influence of its price increase on the growth of the total export index was comparable with price growth of ‘chemicals and related products’ (+2.9% organic chemicals and plastics in particular) and with price growth of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+0.7% iron and steel in particular). The prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ are increasing already since December 2003. Export prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ after decreases in the previous three months recorded no change in July.
- Terms of trade reached the negative value of 99.9% in July because for the first time since August 2003 import prices increased m-o-m faster than export prices. In some sections positive values changed to negative in comparison with June 2004 (e.g. ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ 99.7%, drop by 1.1 percentage point, food 99.7% as well, drop by 1.2 percentage point), in other sections the positive effect decreased (mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 100.7%, drop by 1.8 percentage point). This general negative development was reduced only by the positive value of terms of trade in ‘machinery and transport equipment’ 100.2% (growth by 0.2 percentage point).
Year-on-year comparison:
- Import prices increased by 2.5% in July. They rose already for the fifth month and in comparison with the previous month their growth increased by 0.1 percentage point. The highest growth of import prices was recorded (since December 2003 already) for ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ - in July by 13.2%, since the beginning of the year 2004 for metalliferous ores in particular. Price increase of ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (+10.7%, petroleum and petroleum products in particular) and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+5.0%, non-ferrous metals and iron and steel in particular) had the biggest impact on the growth of the total index of import prices. The increase of prices of these metals is also in accord with their long-term price increase on the world commodity exchange. The decrease was only for prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ (-1.5% mainly telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment) and ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ by -0.1%. Y-o-y import prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ have been continuously decreasing since November 2000.
- Export prices increased y-o-y by 4.4% and continued in their growth, which started already in April 2003. However, in July they increased by 0.1 percentage point less than in June and their growth thus slowed down already the second month. The most significant price growth continues already since November 2003 for ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ (this time by +23.6%, especially in coal and petroleum products). The rise in prices of ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (+9.2%, iron and steel in particular) had a dominant impact on the increase of the total index of export prices. Prices of ‘chemicals and related products’ rose markedly (+10.3%) in context with the price growth of crude oil on world markets. Prices of ‘machinery and transport equipment’ rose only by 0.8% (machinery specialized for particular industries), which was the lowest growth since June 2003. Only ‘beverages and tobacco’ prices decreased (-13.0%) as well as ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ (-0.1%).
- Terms of trade reached the value of 101.9%, which was by 0.2 percentage point less than in June; however, they still remain positive already since April 2001. The highest value is in ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ since October 2003 already. In July 2004, this value reached 111.7%. Positive figures were recorded also for ‘machinery and transport equipment’ 102.3% despite a decrease by 0.1 percentage point in comparison with the previous month. Positive values were reached also for ‘chemicals and related products’ and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by material’ (108.1% and 104.0%, respectively). Negative terms of trade were especially in ‘crude materials, inedible, except fuels’ -90.6% and ‘beverages and tobacco’ -81.9%.
CZSO world price index of raw materials and food 1)
August 2004
August 2004
Month-on-month comparison:
- The world prices covered by the index significantly increased in total by 5.3% in August. It was the highest m-o-m growth since January 2003. The main cause was the m-o-m increase of the most significant commodity measured – crude oil and natural gas in total by 6.6%, especially petroleum Brent by 10.9%. The price of petroleum increased during August and reached its new historical maximum. Commodity stock exchange thus reacted because of concerns about insufficient supply due to terrorist attacks, remaining problems with Russian Yukos Company and political problems in Venezuela. Prices of wood and leather increased, too, while prices of food in total increased only slightly. On the contrary, prices of rubber and textile raw materials were lower and after several-month growth metal prices were lower as well, non-ferrous metals in particular.
Year-on-year comparison:
In August, the world prices were 22.1% up in total, which was by 4.7 percentage points more than in July. It was caused again by the price development of the two most significant commodities measured - petroleum Brent and natural gas. Their prices increased in August y-o-y by +25.6% in total, i.e. by 6.3 percentage points more than in July. Prices of metals increased y-o-y by 29.6% in total. Prices of wood, rubber, food and leather increased, too. Only prices of textile raw materials decreased.
1) The world prices follow actual prices in terms of original currencies read at commodity exchanges and indicate in advance the nature of the future development of Czech import and export prices of industrial raw materials and food.
Note
Contact: Jiří Choun, tel. (+420) 27405 2196, e-mail: choun@gw.czso.cz
Data source: CZSO survey
End of data collection: Last calendar day of the month
End of data processing: Import and export price indices: 40th calendar day following the end of reference month
CZSO world price indices: 10th calendar day following the end of reference month
Related publications: 7201-04 Import and Export Price Indices in the Czech Republic
Detailed on (Internet: http://www.czso.cz/eng/edicniplan.nsf/p/7201-04 )
7202-04 CZSO World Price Indices of Industrial Raw Materials and Food
The released data are definitive.