Quarterly National Accounts of the CR
Commentary | Contents |
Gross Domestic Product in the 1st Quarter of 2005
According to preliminary estimates constant price GDP increased in Q1 2005 by 4.4% year-on-year. Having been adjusted for seasonal variations and a number of working days, the GDP growth was 1.1% up on Q4 2004.
The growth was primarily fuelled by the development of external trade where the year-on-year increase in the exports of goods (+19.5%) outstripped the increase in the imports of goods by a total of 6 percentage points. Trade balance surplus (CZK 22.8 billion at current prices or CZK 27.3 billion at average prices of 2004) has been the highest since the independent Czech Republic came into being. Gross fixed capital formation continued to grow year-on-year at constant prices, though at a slower rate (+5.5%) than in 2004 quarters, the growth slowdown being mainly due to the high level in 2004. Final consumption failed to reach its last year’s level at constant prices (a drop of 0.2%)—expenditure by households grew slightly year-on-year (+1.3%), but expenditure by general government was lower by 3.8% year-on-year. While inventories increased in Q1 2005 by CZK 4.3 billion, the corresponding period of the previous year saw their increase about twice as much.
On the supply side, trade and services in particular—industries significant in terms of weight—made the biggest contribution to the GDP growth. Gross value added in manufacturing, though, increased less (+1.3%) than in previous years, and the construction even dropped (-3.7%) below last year’s level. The high reference basis of the 1st quarter of 2004 was a common denominator here, too.
Current price GDP grew by 5.8% year-on-year only, which translates into the smallest growth over last one and half year. However, the change in the constant price GDP was heavily affected by differentiated developments in individual price areas, which led to the lowest GDP deflator year-on-year growth over last five years (+1.3%).
As to the structure of gross fixed capital formation by type of goods, the share of investment in ‘other buildings and structures’ (without dwellings) in total gross fixed capital formation dropped y-o-y by 2 percentage points to 34.7% (current prices) and the share of ‘other machinery and equipment’ by 0.6 p.p. to 33.5%. On the contrary, an increase was observed in investing in ‘transport equipment’ (+1.6 p.p. to 14.6%) and ‘dwellings’ (+0.4 p.p. to 11.8%). These changes in the structure of gross fixed capital formation are confirmed by development in terms of constant prices—the fastest growth in Q1 2005 was recorded for investing in ‘transport equipment’ (+24.9 %), while a drop was observed for investing in ‘other building and construction’ (-2.9%).
The nominal disposable income of the households sector amounted at current prices to CZK 356.2 billion, growing 4.0 % y-o-y. Households spent 61.5 % of their current income on individual consumption and their current expenditures and saving accounted for 32.0 % and 6.5 % respectively. The principle income item (wages received) grew 5.1 %. In terms of current prices, households spent CZK 8.1 billion more than in the 1st quarter of 2004, y-o-y growth being 2.5 %. Gross saving raised by CZK 6.6 billion y-o-y up to CZK 34.2 billion. The rate of saving – ratio of gross saving to gross disposable income – increased from 8.07 % in the 1st quarter of 2004 to 9.60 %.